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Toshiba Says Blu-ray Victory Numbers May Be Fluke

HD_DVD_Tyson_On_Ropes_Wait.jpgAfter an NPD report showed Blu-ray had 93% of the market for that week, the Blu-ray coalition had good cause to do (or keep doing) the victory dance. But Toshiba's teary-eyed rebuttal makes sense, so we thought we'd share it:

During the week that is being singled out, both Blu-ray disc players and software were being given away for free with the purchase of 1080p TVs. It is also important to note that the instant rebate promotions that had previously netted Toshiba's players' MSRP's to $199 and $249 had actually ended on Jan. 5th - causing an increase in HD DVD's MSRP back to $299 and $399 during that same week.
It's true, you should never take the evidence of one fluke week as gospel truth, but we're not sure this defense is going to help HD DVD sales much, despite what Toshiba is calling "very positive sales trends" at the new $149 and $199 price points. (You know, the trends would be even higher if they were just free by the side of the road, but that doesn't make it a good move.) God forbid this format war actually comes to a freakin' end already! [Toshiba]

9:07 AM on Fri Jan 25 2008
By Wilson Rothman
18,772 views
77 comments

Comments

  • It could come to an end only if Studios (lol) like giz and engadget supports t-ba. lol.... should i say geek blog instead?

  • What movie companies are still HD-DVD exclusive?

  • So what's it gonna be? Is the war over or not. It truely doesn't matter to me. I'm prepared w/both BR and HD-DVD formats but I was looking forward to buying some cheaply priced HD-DVD's and a better player when ever thing HD goes on clearence. Still waiting...

  • I think the villains in several movies have said this best... but HD-DVD, "why won't you just die".

  • toshiba is just trying to fit in at this point like the new kid in school that lies about this and that to be cool so they can be popular.

  • time to start censoring what you post. If you want a single format to win, stop reporting about reasons why hd-dvd isn't dead. if the media all works together we can have an end to this silly format war. It doesn't matter who wins, just finish the battle and let us get on. don't give readers a reason to hope for hd-dvd.

    this is a silly argument anyway. it just shows another reason not to get hd-dvd. their prices have gone back up and you can get free blu-ray equipment with other purchases.

  • I tried to stay impartial to this whole thing, but deep down I just really did not want Sony to win. I'm not a Sony hater, but they just seem so damn determined over the past 20 years to have their own proprietary format that it just makes me nervous.

    I know they don't own Blu-ray outright, but they have enough leverage over it to still put me on edge. Sony has a tendency to be heavy-handed with their media, and I worry that them controlling a format could lead to a very unpleasant "gotcha" moment for consumers.

  • Yes. At this point HD DVD can not realistically come back. (try as people might with online petitions [www.petitiononline.com]) But to me, I do not think the battle is over because Blu-Ray has to make a lot of changes to overtake DVD. Last I checked ~95% of Blu Ray players were PS3. As PS3 grows in popularity I would guess that percentage will likely rise. Sony has to be careful not to pigeon hole their format to PS3 DVD. Thats would be one step away from PSP UMD movie.

    I think Sony understood that from the start as a weakness and thats why they courted so many manufacturers.

  • Image of discounteggroll discounteggroll at 09:30 AM on 01/25/08 *

    the absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence!

    har har

  • @ThatOneWeirdo: I think Paramount and Dreamworks?

    is that right?

    Either way both are great tech, but I don't like when number are spun either way...I say let whoever is winning win already and stop this stupid war...hel the lasers are identical it is just the frequency that they read at that is different. Mass produce variable freq lasers and make dual format the only option and THEN this thing can end with no more bitching.

  • I don't understand why HD-DVD isnt doing better then it is. I personally thought it would kick Blueray in the butt. With its easy to know name, dvd/hd-dvd compatibility.. just doesn't make sense to me.

    Plus after realizing that Blueray was probably going to win the format war I started looking at players and was dumbfounded by the price!

  • Universal, Para and Dreamworks are still HD exclusive.

  • @seiven: Thats correct.

    This is total nonsense that Toshiba is still kicking and screaming. Its like a small child having a temper tantrum. Can we possibly tranquilize them until they fall asleep and forget about the whole "we're not dead" state?

  • I still prefer HD DVD over blu-ray. They can't even spell the word Blue right.

  • Has Universal officially made the jump to blu? I'm not talking exclusively but last I read was that Universal and Paramount/Dreamworks had escape clauses but neither have gone blu yet, other than rumor and speculation that Paramount blu disks were releasing on Amazon UK?

  • @lafond66: seriously ... and it's sony! rootkits people! rootkits! :D

  • Divx! Divx FTW

  • One Question: Why are they still pushing something we all know is a dead product? Just begin making bluray players already and quit this crap.

  • You're all wasting your money...streaming and downloading movies is the next format. I'm gonna laugh at all you people when I buy my Netflix STB and you're all stuck w/blue gay and STD-vd players...womp womp!

  • Universal, Paramount and DreamWorks Animation are all still in HD DVD—we're waiting for them to switch any day now, to be honest.

    And @w00zzy: You don't think that $149 and $199 MSRP for Toshiba's two main HD DVD players isn't cheap enough? They may go lower, but damn if those aren't bargain-basement prices already, especially for MSRP. Stores are bound to carry them for even less before any new price drops are announced. I say start shopping.

  • @blackti3: HD downloads are still a ways off. First, we need Japan-like 100-megabit fiber in a good percentage of homes. Second, we need to convince Hollywood to give up their next big profit center. It's not an organic thing—these are business decisions made to maximize $$$, not to make us happy. Plus, many videophiles think that the HD coming from broadcast TV and net downloads are total crap compared to what's on disc, and the simple math of it tells me they're probably right.

  • @blackti3:

    Streaming and downloads: 4 - 8Mbps
    Blu-Ray & HD-DVD: 25 - 20Mbps

    Streaming and downloads: Some 1080p, mostly 720p
    Blu-Ray & HD-DVD: All 1080p

    Streaming and downloads: All lossy audio and most 5.1
    Blu-Ray & HD-DVD: Some lossless, 7.1, and ultra-high bit rate.

    Streaming and downloads: No extra content (as of yet).
    Blu-Ray 7 HD-DVD: Has extras and downloadable content.

    Downloadable versions still need a few years before the bandwidth is up there. The quality you get out of blu-ray or hd-dvd still annihilates streaming and downloadable content.

    Just remember, streaming and downloads and disc's use the same compression tech, only that there is much higher bit rates on disc's and room for lossless audio at 7.1.





  • @Atrahasis:

    Couldn't have said it better myself. If at first you don't succeed (betamax), try, try again (umd, minidisc, bluray). Just stop it allready.

    But God love 'em for their cameras! CyberShot FTW!

  • I finally saw a television commercial for HD-DVD. Up until now as far as I could tell both sides were only advertising in print, except when a film advertised "available on DVD and Blu-Ray" etc. Anyway, this HD-DVD ad also mentioned low-priced toshiba units. It got me thinking, that given the ignorance of the masses, a strong enough marketing push could tip the scales back in the HD-DVD direction. It's only us nerds who are aware of the drop in studio support. If done properly, the average person will just see cheap prices and Madison Avenue glitter. Studios would realign themselves if they saw the profit potential regardless of the penalties for breach of contract with Sony.

  • @Wilson Rothman: THANK YOU! Your one of the first Gizmodo members to post how far off Downloadable HD media is. People dont seem to understand how much more is involved. Not only that but I personally dont trust hard drives to hold my movie collection. They just don't have the durability and life time that physical / disc media has. SSD maybe.

  • @Wilson Rothman: No, they are right. 4-7Mbps for downloads and 25-30Mbps for discs is a massive difference. So is the potential for lossless audio.

    We need much more bandwidth for HD downloads to make their way here.

  • @fsusmithc2: and their TV's :). I <3 my Bravias.

  • @diabolusunknown: I think you mean, "Yes, they are right," cuz that's what I said.

  • @Wilson Rothman: hahaha. Yeah I think thats what he meant. I sat here re-reading his post for a few minutes trying to figure out where I was going wrong.

  • The gist of this is that in one week BD sales went from ~15k to ~20k, and HD DVD went from ~14k to ~1k.

    Both volumes are low because of the time of year, BD is higher because of promos, HD DVD is lower because of pricing and the Warner announcement.

    The week after this week (that the data is from) would include the new lower priced HD DVD players, so it would be nice if we could get that info.

  • meh.. at least this battle is sturring the economy in its little way.

  • Toshiba is just trying to save enough face to clear out their stock of HD-DVD players and movies. The format war is over, it is just a matter of Toshiba selling off their stuff so they can move on and build Blu-ray players themselves.

  • Let's not forget about the possibility of ISP's changing their flat rate plans and putting limits on your usuage.

  • give consumers more credit on their knowledge of the formats. Through the use of the internet with blogs and articles, the average consumer can generally make a decision on whether bd or hd-dvd's are the way to go.
    Sure there was a promo on getting all these free discs and ps3's but i personally wouldn't buy a tv knowing that a format was on the downward spiral. It would be no incentive to me. Now, if we can get the best buy/cc sales agendas to change from trying to get rid of their inventory on HD-DVD players and movies before the real work on the format war is out...than we see some direction.

  • @SBM_from_LA:
    Why do people always say that the ISPs will limit your usage. I have Qwest high speed? DSL at home at 7Mbs and 3Mbs at work. My wife and kids have the home puter on all the time on the internet(12-20 hrs a day) and 3 at work on the internet all day. I have NEVER had a problem at all. Do some ISPs really limit your usage? How do they know how much you've used?


  • The simple fact that Tosh feels compelled to acknowledge and comment on this report, to me signals that they are indeed as against the ropes as everyone thinks. Showing weakness like this is not going to bring them any new support.

  • @terryinst.paul: They can track anything your doing. Your assigned an IP from them, and from that, they can see the traffic that goes through that IP.

    Browsing the web is not enough to go through 60 - 120 Gigs of bandwidth in a month. Watching 10 - 20 HD movies a month might be.

  • Oddly enough, I just saw an ad on tv for HD-DVD...

    something about how it's the true High Definition format...

    I wasn't really paying attention, but I did think it was strange timing.

  • Good thing I ordered a bunch of HD-DVDs this last week when a store freaked out and dropped their prices to $15 bucks each. Ahahaha

  • @terryinst.paul:

    my rogers cable internet has a limit of 60gigs.

    So I have to make sure I don't torrent TOO many files.

    Paying $50 and still no unlimited bandwidth. Even then full 18mbps $100 plan only comes with 90gigs.

  • @Zlevee: The problem with this logic is that you're using *logic* regarding "ignorant masses". Studies show that the "ignorant masses" don't even realize that just buying an HDTV doesn't get them HD content. They're happily watching their DVD's and thinking it's now in HD because of the huge chunk of change they just dropped on their big new TV.

    Hell, half or more of them didn't even change the settings on their DVD player and are watching stretched out 4:3 content.

    These are not the people in the market for the next High Def format.

  • Considering how much the BDA seems to drum these one week numbers I am geting the feeling they are nervous about not being able to win this absolutely after all. No surprise there, they have literaly given away product for free in order to look like they are winning (BOGO's count as a SALE, even though they are basicaly giving half of the "sold" movies away for free).

    The funny thing about all of this is that with Warners still to happen defection Blu-Ray just got itself a lot steeper hill to climb. If they don't totally win this now they have lost the war anyways. Meanwhile Toshiba only needs to make sure they keep at least 30% of the market to write it up as a "win".

    Something else to consier is: How long is Sony (who is bankrolling a lot of this) able to sustain this before their Shareholders start beating them over the head with the PS3? Toshiba has invested very little by comparision and yet has been hanging in there quite well, it looks to me the economic model for HD DVD is much better than for Blu-Ray.

    Oh, and as "insult to injury", Toshiba makes money on every PS3 sold, after all they bought the Cell plant from Sony, so not only is Sony losing money on every PS3 they put on the shelf but they are (indirectly) funding HD DVD.

    *Gets Popcorn* It's really Toshiba's game still.

  • pack it up hd-dvd.. you were never welcome here.. blu-ray forever

  • @evilsnowman: Dude, what store? You gotta share the info!

  • With Blu-Ray as the HD format, and Sony's history of abusing the formats it controls, I'll be sticking to DVD until it's no longer possible to get content in that format.

  • I am still at a loss as to why people cheer for blu-ray like it was some kind of team. I have hated this whole ordeal, but I am even more pissed that the region-encoded, multiple can't-make-up-their-minds revision level format is going to win.

  • A free Blu Ray player offer doesn't account for why HD DVD player sales SLUMPED last week to almost 1/10th of the previous week's sales figures. Even if Blu Ray picked up a few sales from a promotion, the straight fact is that the Warner announcement totally knocked the stuffing out of HD DVD. Sales of HD DVD were so low tha