Analysts Talk Apple Tablet, Make Ever More Predictions

CNN Money rounded up a bunch of analysts to basically talk about how great the Apple Tablet is, how it's going to cure cancer and save the publishing industry and keep your girlfriend from leaving you, and it's mostly a rehash of what we've already heard before with a dash of a few inane statements that are almost certainly not true. Check this one:

The device will come in several different models that offer varieties of Internet connections, such as Wi-Fi or 3G, perhaps through a contract with AT&T.

Oh, really? Several different models, with varying internet connections? That sure sounds like Apple—they love confusing lineups that differ by virtue of technical specifications that only tech dorks like you and I understand.

Otherwise, nothing to see here, just more analyst talk. When something solid on the Apple Tablet leaks out, you'll know—and it ain't to be found in this article, which is why it lands, with a distinct PLOOP sound, into Remainders. [CNN]

Mad Catz Brings Cheaper Xbox 360 Wi-Fi Adapter, Still About $50 Too Expensive

I just got an Xbox 360 this weekend, and somehow did not realize that not only does the console not ship with included Wi-Fi, but an external Wi-Fi adapter costs about as much as my drinking budget for the month—in other words, way too much money. Luckily Microsoft's first-party adapter isn't the only game in town anymore: Mad Catz is entering the ring with an adapter of their own. Great news, right? Except not really, because while the Mad Catz adapter is $20 cheaper than Microsoft's that's still an $80 pricetag on an item that should be included in the first place. This thing should cost $30 at the most, not half the price of the console. It's in Remainders for that very reason: Yeah, it's a price cut, but it's still way too damned expensive. [Engadget]

Sony Reader Firmware Upgrade Is Surprisingly Difficult

The Sony Reader PRS-500 may not have the cachet of the Kindles and Nooks of the world, but Sony did just release an upgraded firmware supporting the soon-to-be-standard ePub format. Except I guess the upgrade is seriously difficult, because instead of, you know, pressing a button, like every other firmware upgrade for every other gadget in the history of the world, you have to mail the Reader back to Sony to get this one updated. What? Well, Sony's got an offer in case you find that as silly as I do: A trade-in program that gives you either $50 or $75 off the purchase of one of Sony's brand-new readers! Eesh, Sony. At least take us out to dinner before trying to screw us with our pants on. [Engadget]

B&N Giftcards Will Work for Nook Ebook Purchases, Soon

Remember when we reported that Barnes & Noble's popular giftcards would, for some unknown reason, not be allowed to be spent on ebook purchases? Well, our reporting did its job, and B&N has decided to change its ways and allow ebook giftcard purchases starting in mid-December. We did it, people! High fives and ass-slaps all around! [Barnes & Noble]

They predict that Apple, on the other hand, will hit 33 percent marketshare by that point, matching Nokia sometime in 2011—just two years away—with 77 million phones.

The image associated with this post is best viewed using a browser.That scenario, though, depends on some awesome conditions for Apple (think about 77 million iPhones!) on top of some truly horrific ignorance from Nokia, letting the smartphone market go almost entirely with a half-assed defense of its position as it focuses on profits from its mass volume low-cost wares in developing countries.

I don't really think it'll get that far, honestly, even if that's sorta kinda what Nokia seems to be doing right now. Besides, when have we ever listened to analysts? [Generator Research via Electronista]

Charter Equity Research is now saying that Palm has pushed over 300k Pres into sales channels in June alone, setting them on a pace to sell a million units in the first quarter. Set in the context of the iPhone 3G and 3GS's million-in-a-weekend sales pace, this doesn't sound like a ton. Set in the more meaningful context of Palm's sales last quarter, it's huge. As John Paczkowski points out, the company sold just 351,000 phones total in the quarter preceding the launch of the Pre.

Palm may be waiting to release official numbers until supply issues are sorted out and they can claim a more flattering number, but this right here? Pretty impressive. If there was any lingering doubt that a single phone could salvage this ailing company (and assuming these numbers are right), it's gone now. [Barrons via AllThingsD]

If they start making products people don't want, and start losing users, then Apple's strategy will run into problems.

I'm going to have to say that this is the best quote I've ever seen. [NYT - Thanks ponies!]

Analysts at DisplaySearch have told Eric Taub at the NYTimes that they are projecting a dismal year for TV sales in 2009: not only are sales of all TVs expected to decline in all of North America by 4%, LCD TV sales are expected to grow only 2%. That's compared to a 22% gain in 2008 and 77% in 2007. Always thought to be recession proof, TVs are getting hit.

But why the slowdown on continuously plunging prices? Expecting reduced sales, panel factories are cutting back on production. And if you've been paying attention, you know that production efficiencies at high volume (via things like 150-inch panels of mother glass) are what drives prices down.

DisplaySearch is seeing panel factories in Taiwan and Korea are currently scaled back to 80% capacity; pair that with cancelled plans for new, more efficient manufacturing plants, and you've got the recipe for a halt to the downward pricing trend on HDTVs:

Mr. Semenza [of DisplaySearch] expects that prices for LCD sets 32 inches and smaller will remain fairly stable. Retail prices on TVs 42 inches and larger will not decline as fast as they have in years past.

Bummer. [NYTimes, Photo: mgminthu/Flickr]

Well, at least no Zune Phone as we're hearing it. A few days ago, some analysts stirred up the rumors of a Zune specific piece of hardware this week, complete with hardware details, which Barrons quoted. CNBC declared that a Zune Phone, called Project Pink, was slated for CES. Mary Jo Foley at ZDNet, who separated the Zune Phone hardware from the Pink project weeks ago reminded us that Pink is not a piece of hardware but a platform of services that could allow Zune like services to run on platforms like Windows Mobile. (Although Mary Jo Foley told me today that she thinks that it would be powerful if Pink services ran on other devices, and I agree.) So leave the hardware and Pink apart for a moment. Mary Jo believes Pink could come at CES and with it, a platform for Zune like content on mobile devices, but in line with what Seitz has said on behalf of Microsoft and what Mary Jo Foley believes, I think the Analyst and CNBC have the details slightly skewed.

Both CNBC and the analyst Barrons quoted could have been talking to a manufacturer of a phone, describing a specific implementation of Zune like features on a given set of hardware, via Pink components. But coming from a company that builds their best devices in house, I don't think we can call a Zune Phone a Zune Phone until we see actual devices designed in house design by the Entertainment and Devices team. (To me, this stands in contrast with Google and its Android platform, where every implementation of the OS is a Google Phone, since they have no claim to making great hardware.)

Based on all this, I reiterate that my best guess is that we have is a good chance of seeing Pink, but not a Zune Phone, at CES 2009. [Thanks to Mary Jo Foley for her expertise]

The evidence seems to be in line: Apple Insider points at Apple's crazy-aggressive (for Apple) back-to-school promotion this year that offered a free iPod touch ($300 value) with a new notebook purchase (over previous years' Nanos), and a general feeling in the air that Black Friday is going to be batshit crazy this year across the board. Also cited is Orange's plan to slash iPhone prices by €50 for Noël in France—but take that with a bit more skepticism, because the international carriers have more lee-way over their localized pricing. So is this just stating the obvious? We shall see what happens. [Apple Insider]

To start, for people who supposedly have " years of tracking [Apple's] strategic product moves" they seem woefully unaware of products that Apple has out right now, much less where Apple is heading. For instance, they predict a whole new "home server" product/market to dish out your movies and music. Time Capsule could do that with a couple of firmware updates. And it's already out there.

The biggest thing is that they're seeing seven or eight major products at Apple's core where really there's just a few, at most. The illogic of Apple doing Geek Squad-style home installs or pumping out digital picture frames and media-streaming clock radios aside (yes Forrester really suggests all of those things), stuff is converging (or trying to), not multiplying and splintering. Macs, Apple TV and the iPhone cover most of what Forrester is proposing is the future of Apple and in a far less complicated way than they're imagining—what's missing is the content, but that's a wider problem, beyond and outside of Apple (and anyone else trying to make god boxes for the living room).

Here's our take on 2013: Fewer boxes and gadgets, more integration, more seamlessly. Can we get our six figures now? [Forrester]

If you add the Steve Jobs boom count (1 boom, 36 minutes into the presentation) to the number of hardware announcements (5-iPhone, touch, classic, nano & shuffle), then subtract the closing day stock price at WWDC '07 ($120.19) divided by the opening day stock price ($145.12), and then finally subtract our two cents, you get 5.15—the same as the percentage drop in Apple's stock today.

1+5-($120.19/$145.12)-.02=5.15 (rounded off)

See, we can be analysts too! [AAPL]

new widgets, peer-to-peer applications (chat, picture messaging, social networking), location-based services, MMS support, home networking, and possibly some integration with Mac OS X Leopard.

Of course, all of that is unconfirmed since it came from analysts, not Apple. These analysts also claimed that both lower priced ($349-$399) and higher priced (something more than $599) iPhone models are coming, differentiated not by features, but on storage. The one thing we do know: the software update is coming soon. [Apple Insider via Wired]

Here are some more unlikely numbers.

Analyst Gene Munster from Piper Jaffray projects that Apple will sell 40 million iPhones in 2009. (A similar article on macnn.com actually claims that he says 45 million iPhones in 2009.) Plus, other analysts are saying 3 million iPhones in 2007 and 10 to 12 million in 2008.

To put all this guesswork into perspective, it helps to know that Apple doesn't give any extra access to analysts. Which means they're pretty much in the same boat the rest of us are when it comes to predictions. – Jason Chen

How Big Will the iPhone Be? [Businessweek]

Analyst predits 45m iPhone sales by 2009 [Macnn]

Much like the Western calendar marks time from before and after Jesus Christ, and how the computer world changed totally by the Macintosh—remembering that Windows is Microsoft's copy of the Mac operating system—I am certain that the mobile telecoms world will count its time in two Eras. The Era BI: time Before the iPhone, and the ERA AI: time After the iPhone.

He views the iPhone model of mobile multimedia, multitasking thingamajigger as a new paradigm, on top of which a new Silicon Valley bubble will be built, since "Microsoft, Dell, HP, Intel, IBM, any IT company will suddenly want a cellphone strategy. Mobile experts will suddenly be in short supply," making this "the new dawn of the computer age. The real revival after the dot-com bust."

For all of his hyperbolic bombast, however, he's more than likely spot on in one respect: mobile advertising will probably become more aggressive post-iPhone and iClones, given the range of content that will ostensibly be viewed on them, and to nod his way, the size of the screen.

What do you guys think? Dawn of a new era or over-hyped blip on the gadget radar? How bonkers (or not) is Tomi? – Matt Buchanan

Entering iPhone Era: Marking Time in Mobile [Communities Dominate Brands via Smart Mobs]

For one, even if it does blow up the smart phone market, that market is less than 10 percent of the total mobile market, and much of its growth has been spurred, in fact, by cheaper smart phones.

The other point is that even though the "new AT&T" has nearly 70 million subs, the iPhone's only going to grab new or renewing customers—it doesn't necessarily have access to that whole base. Yoon speculates that this exclusivity could be a way for Apple to draw envious eyes while working out the kinks, before rolling it out in a broader fashion, much like it did with the original iPod.

Regardless, his best point, which gets at the real question of how successful the iPhone can or will be, is that "a product, no matter how promising, can easily fail to live up to expectations if the market is just not there."

Is the market there? If so, where—between smart and high-end phones, or in an altogether heretofore undefined one in the US? Can Apple simply create the market if it doesn't already exist? – Matt Buchanan

Beware Apple's iPhone Froth [Forbes via iLounge]

Press Release [via Gadget Lab]

Tossing out on their asses those who forecast gaming console sales by throwing darts at a dartboard, let's take a look at the real numbers: Xbox 360 has sold 9.44 million units so far, the Wii has moved 2.2 million, compared to the measly 854,627 units of the PS3. Maybe those researchers aren't paying any attention to which gaming consoles are actually fun to play. Who's your daddy, PS3? – Charlie White

Research and Markets: PS3 To Win The Console War [Playfuls.com, via Dvorak Uncensored]

Hey, Gramps, Can I Borrow Your Mac? [via The Raw Feed via InformationWeek]

So let's vote on it. Our earlier poll just at the Zune's launch showed mild acceptance of the brown Zune, rejection of white, and a preference for black. Now that many of you have had a chance to actually see the brown one, we put this more-specific question to you, dear readers:

Gawker Media polls require Javascript; if you're viewing this in an RSS reader, click through to view in your Javascript-enabled web browser.

We've seen all three colors of the Zune, and I actually like the brown one best. With its painted-on-the-inside translucent weirdness, I only wish it were a bit more rounded and smaller, not a different color. – Charlie White

TechTrends: Microsoft Zune Fails With Color, Sex Appeal [NBC11.com]