these figures never include rentals (stores/netflix/etc). I would be curious to see what the rental numbers are like as i feel that people rent movies far more often then buy them.

@etown: How would rental figures differ from sales figures? Are you suggesting that renters would favor HD DVD over Blu-ray? Wouldn't they trend in the same direction?

I've had the position for the past 2 years that I am not going to jump into this battle until a winner is decided. Now I've gone and won a free HD TV at work, so now I feel obligated to have an HD Feed. I can't seem to find any sites that give me a good reason to jump in on one side or the other -
Blu-Ray sells more discs, NetFlix rents more HD-DVD, player sales numbers are different based on who is counting yadda yadda yadda
So I'm left trying to decide between Sony and Microsoft as the lesser of two evils (which side do I join), or guess which format can get a player at $200 on the shelves at Walmart (which is where I think that the winner will be crowned).
Other than fan-boyism, does anyone have a crystal ball for this one?

@etown: Do rentals mean anything in terms of money seen by the studio? If I buy a DVD, the studio sees that money, but if I rent something 1000 times, the disc is only paid for once, right?

Wouldn't rentals be the worst way to see what's what as people may not have the format choice they want and settle for something else? (like getting a DVD because they don't have the HD DVD version in-stock)

So tired of all this. Neither camp is going to throw up their arms and say, "Fsck it. They're beating us. Let's quit."

I mean, it's important to cover this so people can decide one way or the other, but it really just seems to be a student council election at this point. The outcome really doesn't matter, and people are picking based on popularity.

Seriously, stop with the freaking cats. Unless you are Egyptian. Then you can pray to cats. Other than that, no more cats.

@Wilson Rothman: It wouldn't matter in terms of format, but it would in profit and making the studio want to release more. They get royalties on rentals.

I'm a case in point. Whatever I can get in HD-DVD from Netflix, I do, but I own maybe 4 actual discs. So, my HD rentals outnumber my ownership by 5 to 1.

Judging by the number of discs in stores around here, you'd think that HD DVD is selling 2 to 1 over blue ray, I can't find half the number of HD DVD's as blueray... I want to buy them... really I do... just... they've gotta put them on the shelfs so I can

@SpeneyG: I disagree. I think we need more cats.
Bring back the kitty sniper!

That HD-DVD format is a pussy... a pussy-cat! Come on guys.

MORE LOL CATS PLZ! K THX!

haha.
i love that people are upset by the use of cats for graphics.

so yeah, two things.

1) who cares

2) who cares

--

it's WAY WAY to early for everyone to be replacing their libraries of DVD's to embrace a new format.
shit, i had to wait how many years for MTV's The State to finally get a DVD release? - and frankly it's not even out yet, just confirmed that they are *finally* releasing it.

these formats just put a roadblock in the cultural highway of my life.

you think i can get all my favorite B horror flicks on bluray or HD? nope!

This is because it's called

Blue-ray.

As opposed to

ZOMGLOTSOFLETTERSHERE-VD

I mean, does this really surprise anyone?

@Elvisisdead:

"The outcome really doesn't matter, and people are picking based on popularity."

The real problem is that people aren't picking and instead, sticking by good old DVD.

@robotstephe: Agreed. The kitty sniper was good. But there's nothing for us dog people.

-Hoping my blu-ray discs don't end up next to my mini discs

@nachobel: Yeah because the public can't figure out HD=High def and DVD=DVD.

And by that argument I could say HD-DVD will win because not everyone likes the color blue.

Those clever cats really suck at tying up. Hey kitty kitty, face each your opponent, tie up, then throw the smaller cat into the turnbuckle.

If HD DVD wins, it will because they paid studios HUGE obscene amount of cash to push the product, followed by a massive amount of giveaways - besides the 5 free you with each player.

While Blu-Ray does the same 5 titles new player giveaway, I would much rather see every title possible be released (day and date) alongside it's DVD release. Software sells hardware.

@ FlashandBox: In regard to rentals, under copyright law, there is a compulsory license fee that is paid for each rental. This is similar to some forms of radio play or television where the royalty is paid out on a per-use basis. It may only be 1/2 of one cent per rental, but that can add up quickly with a hot movie.

@DocGratis: Of course. That's the definitive argument. Most people would clearly prefer the Pink-Ray option.

Seriously speaking, I think that both formats will vanish with time. Online digital content streaming is the future in terms of efficiency and cost. We are not so far of seeing HD-capable bandwidths at homes.

Do you really think that PS4¡, Xbox 720 games (or Nintendo Weeeee for that matter) will be packed in a physical disc? They are supplying online games in their respective online platforms today!

@DocGratis: Not everyone likes the color blue? That's crazy talk. Blue is the color of a beautiful clear sky and fresh, pure open water. Love of blue is hardwired into our brains.

@DocGratis: Right, people cannot figure out that HD-DVD means High Def DVD. It also looks messy and very military or something.

Blu-Ray looks so peaceful in comparison, like a warm day at the beach or something. I'm guessing you aren't involved with any type of advertising/sales, but it is what it is.

Certainly people that read Gizmodo are "in the know", but to the average person...well, they're idiots. Blu = Blue = I like color, I'll buy that one.

I own 1 bluray disc. I've watched a dozen or so bluray through netflix.

@ihatethekids:

Could not agree more my friend.

@nachobel: HD-DVD does have that advantage of people see that they have a high definition upconverting dvd player and they see that this is a high definition dvd and they think that they are able to play it in their player. I really think the HD-DVD name causes more confusion than Blu-Ray because it is so similar to the DVD name that everyone with a high definition tv thinks that they can automatically play a HD-DVD. Blu-Ray sounds completely different and the blue on the packaging really does stick out more than the red on HD-DVD so people are more inclined to ask what it is before buying.

There is no God, and every man dies alone.

That said, I prefer Blu-ray over HD-DVD.

HD-DVD breaks the number of syllables for a format.

LP/EP/Album - 2
8-track - 2
Cassette/tape - 2/1
CD - 2
Mini-disc - 3
VHS - 3
Beta - 2
Laser disc - 3
DVD - 3
Blu-Ray - 2
HD-DVD - 5!

Yeah, 5 is just against the rules.

@HoldenCfld:
Yeah man, too much.

For a product that its producers want to become a consumer standard, it has a horrible name. Blu-Ray is easy to say; DVD is a bit awkward and HD-DVD is ridiculous.

When I'm finally forced to convert to one of these stupid standards that nobody asked for, to blu-ray I'll go.

@HoldenCfld: Your logic astounds me.

@HoldenCfld: So that is why Memory Stick Pro Duo is just not catching on.

I'm not buying ANY new DVDs until we see all DTS-MA DVDs - I don't care if it is HD or BR that does it but I'm not about to buy new DVDs with crappy standard sound and then get the DTS-MA version 6 months later. They played this F'n game with regular DVDs - release a half assed version then a special edition with DTS version 6 months later.

It's gonna seriously chafe Microsoft's arse to have to capitulate to BluRay being the hi-def format of choice.

Which it will be.

that picture is easily the funniest thing i've seen (so far) this week.

@SNRUB, yeah, but people also seem to like initialisms like CD, DVD, and VHS.

"Blue Ray" always reminded me of "Betamax." There's just something...undignified about those names, like they're trying to sound "cool." HD-DVD is clunky, but it's a logical extension of DVD and sounds more professional, in my mind.

That said, I don't think it'll have any bearing on this "format war." They're both going to be specialty formats for a while yet and I don't think a 2:1 sales discrepancy is enough to force one off market yet.

@SpeneyG:
Cats r kwl...

I wonder how many people have bought an HD DVD and put it into their standard DVD player at home only to find out it doesn't work?

Blu-Ray Cat: Meow, how did I beat you?

HD-DVD Cat: Meow... you're too fast.

Blu-Ray Cat: Meow! Do you think that's air you're breathing?

went to fry's electronics two days ago ... bluray winning over hd dvd was presented there by the number of titles available and the quantity left by the days work. HD dvd looked like it was fully stocked while bluray had one of this or that and sold out movies were obviously nowhere to be seen.

@gewgaw: hahaha oh if only I could +rep you

Demon@demonwolf: How do you know when the discs were stocked? They might have come in during different shipments, or the stockboys got to them at a different point in the week. This is not a valid basis of comparison.

PS3 owners to blame for this?

Does anybody know why dual layer DVDs are still $4+ per?

Preface: I own an HD-DVD drive for my Xbox and won't buy a PS3, or any Sony products.

I think it's far too premature to say which format will win, if either. Studio backing done through legitimate decisions or backroom deals are more likely to decide this thing and right now, the studio pack is too evenly divided. And as a previous commenter mentioned, the window on physical media is closing fairly quickly, so if they don't decide to jump in with one or the other, they may just hold out completely until digital distribution, leading to both formats losing pretty hardcore.

All I know is, I can enjoy The Big Lebowski in HD right now... and that's all that matters to me.

I'm really not sure why anyone cares. We've been here before with DVD-R and DVD+R, we all know how this is going to play out given the capitol behind each standard. It's just a really crappy business case: "We won't release transformers on Blu_Ray so we won't sell even more over-priced dvds which cost the same amount to burn" (or use with any blu-ray exclusive title).

It's just stupid to pit consumers against consumers like this.

@snrub:

Don't forget that the abbreviation for Blu-ray Disc is simply "BD".

Always worth comparing to DVD sales.

Here's the best I could find after some googling:
[www.dvdinformation.com]

Number of DVDs shipped in 1997: 5.5 million
Number of DVDs shipped in 2004: 1.5 BILLION

Neither of these formats is winning. Both are losing.

@ruggels: Exactly. The average consumer has no patience for this crap, and will not tolerate a format war. Joe Sixpack and Betty Soccermom are not going to buy two different disc players that cost over $100 each, and they are not going to buy a player that they can't watch Transformers on, or one that they can't watch Pirates of the Carribean on. The only winners in the format wars are going to be the manufacturers who release dual-format players at a low price point early enough to make some money before widespread downloading makes the whole issue moot.

i love the pussies,
i love a good cat fight.
long live the victor,
long live Blu-ray!

went to Costco again, and still no hd-dvd
on the shelves but the do have a selection
of Blu-ray. that's the sign of the times.
hd-dvd pack it up.

Don't you think at some point one of the big studios is just going to find a way out of backing ONE side? IMO it'll happen sooner than later because the studios are losing money. Eventually the bonus they got for backing one side will stop covering the loss. Especially with the end of the format war nowhere in sight.

"Samsung just sent us an alert saying the dual-format BD-UP5000 Duo HD player will come hardware-ready for BD Profile 1.1-at least 256MB of internal storage, secondary audio and video decoders, virtual file system. You realize that the rest of the Blu-players this fall totally lack this, and its a wonder how Sony and everyone else can get away selling old spec Blu players while calling them new. It is, to put it mildly, a crock of shit.

But Samsung had to make tradeoffs to deliver the goods: The BD-UP5000 will only start appearing in stores in "mid to late December" and it wouldn't actually play BD Profile 1.1 discs until it receives a firmware update slated for the end of January 2008. Also, to focus its attentions on this sexy $1,050 flagship, Samsung has killed off its $600 HQV-equipped BD-P2400 Blu-ray player.

So the precious B.R. format still needs upgrades? Or the B.R. manufacturers are already busy with B.R. 2.0...that some current players won't play?!?

I'll take HD-DVD, thanks.

If either camp wants to win they have to lower the MSR Price at least close to DVD. WTF? Who in their right mind wants to pay $30 a movie especially with the knowledge that digital processing costs the same no matter what the output resolution is? Sure manufacturing costs like 75 cents to a dollar more, but why does that translate to $10-15 more in price?

Back in 1985 when DVDs came out, they were not priced that high. I vaguely recall that back in the 70s when VHS came out, they were not priced that high either (though I was a kid then) and manufacturing of that media is even more expensive. An inflation argument or lack of economies of scale on a new format are not cutting it for me since it all comes down to greedy companies highly taxing the early adopter.

I was much more apt to make an impulse buy of movies in the $14-20 price range. Now that the new formats are out I have stopped buying DVDs entirely and I have decreased my spending significantly both due to price and format uncertainty. I hope other consumers start to hold their purchasing dollars back as well to force the greedy media companies to provide pricing incentives on the new formats.

they're both losing. neither will really be winning until they're priced similar to dvd's. dvd sales are lacking now too. all rental places are giving people essentially unlimited rentals for the price of one dvd/month, most include blu-ray discs now and some include hd-dvd. why buy anything anymore? so you can watch it whenever you want? bah. If that isn't bad enough, I currently get over 40 hd channels (thanks dish), with lots of great movies in quality almost as good as either of those formats (1080i vs p). I can save those to my dvr as long as I want. I can extend my dvr as much as i want. external hdd's are cheaper than buying dvd's now. 500gb for $150 or 5 hd/br discs? hmmm, let me see.

Personally, I prefer blu-ray (it's all you can get at blockbuster) and actually own about 5, but won't be buying anymore. I'm still trying to figure out what to do with my 800+ dvd's. I can't believe i wasted so much money on those.

I prefer kitties to the ^_^ iPhones

The advantage of HD DVD is that it's based on DVD which is based on CDs, so 1) manufacturing is just a retrofit of the same equipment used to made DVDs. BluRay is a totally new manufacturing process and requires totally different equipment. There are many more plants that can make HD DVD than BluRay. This means costs should start to lower as they recoup those upgrade costs. (Although it's ridiculous and unacceptable to charge $30 a title now.)

2) It's better for consumers and tech types because the content is again based on the DVD format. Standard content HD DVD uses an HVDVD_TS folder instead of a VIDEO_TS folder. AND you can burn HD DVD content onto a regular DVD and play it in HD on an HD DVD player. This means that at a decent quality, you an fit 60 minutes of HD Video on a regular DVD5, and burn it with your current equipment.

3) BluRay requires copy protection and that authors pay huge license fees, where with HD DVD it is optional. The small guy who wants to put out an HD DVD for sale, and burn them on demand is locked out of the market with BluRay. Only large companies like Disney and Sony can afford to put out BluRay product. With HD DVD the indie can make and sell HD product.

I would think that this type of flexibility would be good for consumers.

BluRay is AGAIN a sony format that is proprietary and closed. Yes it has a higher capacity per layer, but that's the only long term advantage. Good for DATA maybe.

NOW we just need a cheap HD DVD Burner, lower prices on HD DVDs, and this stupid format war could be over.