interesting story, I suspect since google has got the open device provision already pushed through they have no reason to win.

I hope a non-cell phone company wins it and forces the cell phone companies to become more competitive.

Where does the money go? Who are they buying this spectrum FROM?

Thanks Giz. I already feel a little bit less dumber.

My guess is AT&T will be the big winner in the 700mhz spectrum across the board.

AT&T's Stephenson is pretty ruthless behind that southern charm.

Don't count them out.

@deepdish: you're right a non-cell phone company wins forcing the cell phone companies to become more competitive ... becoming less cellphone companies.

the cellphone companies are doomed to evolve to become all in one comunication companies. where you have in the size of your palm ALL the technologies we know and a few we dont. in 5-10 years all the phones must have tv, sms, gps, a pc integrated for email, data storage and modification, videoconferencing, live video streaming (ala portable webcam that we can wear so others can see what we are doing/going/stoping) and I dont know what else.

I cant wait the moment when we can open a browser page enter [212***6658] and then you can see my life broadcast, where my phone is trasnmiting from his recharging base next to my desk, or when Im going to bars or in the car, allways trasnmiting my life to those I allowed to.

I dont want to do it, i just see the market going in that way, and I think google is developing the marketing technologies to analyze us, like little lab rats and our behavioral patters of consuming, producing and living and filling the blanks with offers to companies and consumers with this patters.

@Munch: All the money goes to Bush and Cheney to split to help finance their global wars, some Christmas shopping, and maybe a roll in the hay with some Vietnamese 'masseuses'; after cool hair cuts of course.

I agree that Google sounds kind of noncommittal, but it's also important to remember that it got only half of the openness stipulations it wanted built into the auction. And, as mentioned, Verizon can and probably will try to renege on all the hoopla they've been spouting, if not going so far as to file more lawsuits once they come up with some excuses about security issues for open networks.
I wonder if they'll try to cite that bill that just passed in the House of Representatives, if it passes the Senate, about beaucoup data retention to prevent people from doing "obscene" things on open networks.
Google might want to control the spectrum because they can't trust Verizon, long-term.
Also, are those blocks really divided up regionally? I think they're chunks of the spectrum. C block corresponds to TV channels 60 & 61, and 65 & 66. Is there a regional element too?

@jeffj-nj: The Man

(by The Man I of course mean the benevolent entity that represents us all and always has our best interests at heart, the government)

As small piece of it goes to provide OTA digital adaptors for those with analog only TVs and no cable box.

Nope don't care

@aratuk: Yeah. The C block, for instance, is comprised of 12 regional licenses which in their totality, cover the entire country. The others are divided differently.

We can only hope that an open-access-friendly company (even Google)will be able to win the bid, as I for one, am pretty tired and PO'd with the US cellular service providers tryinng (and so far successfully) hindering technological progress and innovative new services in exchange for higher profits and increasingly crappier service. Hell, even a third-world South-East Asian country like the Philippines have better mobile phone service options than we currently do (been there recently.)

GIVE US OPEN ACCESS, OR GIVE US DEATH!

@jeffj-nj: The FCC. Basically it's the right to use the spectrum without getting decked with lawsuits.

There are a lot of companies that need this spectrum. VZ and Google will be the two realistic competitors. Cox is the dark horse, since the cable partnership with Sprint has fallen through, Cable needs this spectrum badly. Cox could pay a premium, then lease access to other cable cos. This would be a smart move for Cox, but risky.
AT&T has enough muscle to compete, even just to drive up prices.
If Google does not win the spectrum, it is not the end of the world, but it could severely limit the growth of their company. VZ & AT&T can limit Google via access. If they owned the access to the customer, they would be virtually unstoppable. And running a network is not as difficult as everyone thinks, esp if you let Ericsson or Nokia manage it.

good read... thx Matt for the knowledge and the updates.

Very nice summary, Matt. I had a handle on most of this stuff, but you broke it down to a level where I could send this link to somebody who hardly knew anything and with this (and the links) they'd have a good idea on who's planning what for 2008.

thanks for the info, but now i'm worried. things were better when i didn't know so much.

one more thing. if google wins this spectrum, they will be able to provide a triple/quad-play bundle comparable to Comcast, Cox, VZ & AT&T. would you pay google $25 per month for google triple play + OS? i think they could make this a reality at this pricepoint. if they do this, google could become the biggest company on earth.

I think this "Google probably isn't trying to win" stuff is bunk. This is probably because I'm a Google fan and don't like Verizon, but still...

Google's plan for the OHA was that they make their money on advertisements seen online, so they want to turn the 300 million cell phones into little, hand-held ad revenue generators. Consumers get innovation, Google gets money. I'm fine with that.

If Verizon wins, then Google's expansion plan is in question. Yes, they can still pimp Android on the existing tech, but they are still limiting their upside, especially since they obviously feel that the 700mhz spectrum will play a very large role in consumer telecomm soon.

I'm sure Google has two business plans: one if they win and one if they don't. The plan if they win has to be more attractive, so it makes sense to try to follow that path.

I also like the word "bunk."

@MagnoliaBoy:
now way would cheney get a cool haircut. he doesn't have enough hair. he would spend the money on ebay auctions to get Elton John's wigs from the '70s.

@apt94jesse:
there is no competitive business plan behind this (free cell service in exchange for advertisements).

If it proved to be popular, verizon & t could match in a second, and drive google out of the industry. Goog's startup costs alone would kill them, unless you feel that google can deliver ads to a cell phone 'better' then VZ or T.

You can see from the limited success of Helio & Boost that even flat plans can barely compete, so a 'free' plan would never make it.

@drewheyman:

so to add: google could start a cell phone company and compete in a traditional manner, or they will offer some really cool new service that T & VZ haven't even thought of, but i wouldn't expect to get any kind of free plan based on advertising revenue alone.

Thanks for the clarified info update. I applaude Google for pushing for more open standards. Broad based competition IS what this industry needs to make the consumers happy again. Let's all pray for that! (or meditate upon it, if you prefer)

@drewheyman: I'm thinking tape on mowhawk from the Prodigy guy. Fiya Starta!

what happens to A, B, D, E blocks?

@drewheyman: Who said anything about "free cell service?" Google is motivated by controlling how, when, and where their ads are delivered. If they control the delivery, they can increase their ad effectiveness and transfer cost to the advertisers.

It is more realistic to think that, should Google win, they would license off the spectrum to groups that already have the infrastructure to take advantage. Google, however, would be in the driver's seat, making: A. Revenue off the licenses, and B: Maximum ad revenue from their new vehicle.

well google is one of the richest companies in america today. And this may be irrelevant but it should take an aweful lot of electricity to power their servers they have solar panels on their whole roof so they're money is going up cuz they dont have to pay as much to power their servers anymore
Well i wouldn't like to see verizon win because they're like the cocky person who thinks their too good for everyone of the carriers.
AT&T is the ever so cocky jock who wants to do everything in no time.
T-Mobile is the cool guy who has tons of friends, skills, good guy, who's finally catching up to AT&T (the person who's just like him but just more agile and athletic)
Then finally Sprint is the dude on the track team that could run the quarter mile in record time but cant hold his speed because he decides to slack off and chill with his friends instead of practicing.

@SneakerFiend: didn't alltel make that into a commercial?

what happens to the A,B,D,&F blocks? srsly u only talked about C. What if C isn't near me since it's regional? can't google get one. plz verizon stop being such evil assholes.

For info on how the blocks break down, try this:

[www.bingham.com]

Don't think of "regionally" like time zones. That's not accurate, even though that's what it sounds like.

Its Dish Network now, EchoStar changed their name.

'Where does the money go? Who are they buying this spectrum FROM?'

Bush/Cheney; The US Govt collects money to use our spectrum. It'll just go down that rabbit/hell-hole that is Iraq.

here you go...GOOGLE and APPLE (who has $15 billion sitting around) bid together. google gets a new venue to pimp its asteroid-powered handsets and apple gets to drop the funk bomb on RIM, palm and winCE devices.

imagine a next-gen iphone driven by VoIP instead of cellular. you activate it from itunes and for one low price you get VoIP, video conferencing and an unlimited data plan, nationwide.

price it cheap and basically destroy everyone.

It doesn't matter who wins, we are all going to get c blocked.

i want google to win just to see what they do with it.

i know the standard telecos will just keep releasing cellphones and overcharging people for their plans, so no surprises there.

Interesting article. I admittedly haven't been following this closely, but I wouldn't rule Google out just yet. They've got a metric shit ton of cash, and there are only so many lousy, unprofitable Web 2.0 companies they can buy with it. Buying more YouTubes is pointless.

They wouldn't need to offer free ad-supported phone or internet service to pull customers either. Everybody hates their cell provider. Everybody. And everybody hates their ISP. They could get an instant 20% market share just from picking up disgruntled customers of AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, Comcast, etc.

@superbad: Wishful thinking maybe... EVERYONE hates their carrier and their ISP. Unless Google is giving away unicorns to new subscribers, they are going to build up the same stable of customers angry about late charges, services outages, and ever other reality of consumer driven business. It will poison their other assets. Google has an amazing business plan that makes consumers happy while someone else foots the bill. Why change that?

@Dr. Spaceman: But you'll be the first to bitch, I'm sure.

@ceilingFANBOY: Indeed. I fear the same.

@willyolio: That would be awesome, if for no other reason than to shake up those telco fatcats.

The difference in Google vs. the other big boys is that ATT, VZW, etc.'s business model is based solely (or majorly) around charging people for wireless.

Google has the flexibility to not have to float their budget on wireless, just supplement it.

The main difference I see is that Google's 700mhz offering would be something new introduced to the market, whereas VZW would either integrate it into its current system or risk competing with itself.

@SneakerFiend:

Google is not the one of the richist companies in America, not even close at&t is about 6x larger and verizon is 9x larger. Google's revenue last year was 10.6 billion. How can they come up with a minimum of 5 billion for the spectrum plus the funds to build out and operate a national network? Its not possible.

Assuming Verizon wins, how would the 700 MHz spectrum work as a data network: would it be faster than 3G or EVDO or whatever? How is it different? would there be better reception than current cell phones offer inside buildings? That seems to be what this article is saying. How does it compare to 2.4 GHz wifi in terms of range, speed, etc? (I don't know much about information theory but I'm guessing that 2.4 GHz can move data faster than 700 MHz.
Would they use existing cell towers, or satellites, or what?

@tomas_OOO: Google has over $11 billion (probably more like $12b now, that was last year) in cash. They actually have too much cash relative to their total assets- they routinely go over the 40% limit that the SEC uses to classify mutual funds, and they have to keep getting an exemption. If they want to do this, they have the money (even though they would likely finance most of it anyway). Hiphopopotamus is probably right though- this isn't really their business plan.

I actually work for att and have for a number of years in the wireless side and am pretty confident we will be taking this spectrum. att already has started with the 1900mhz then aquired the 850mhz now the 700mhz is the obvious move. att uses the 1900mhz for their data such as gprs and uses the 850mhz for the 3g and voice. as you can see, go phone offers the all you can eat minutes packages, but did you know that it will run only on the 1900mhz cause it sucks. dropped calls like cingular had before any of the mergers. 850 has made a huge difference in our customer satisfaction and i am excited for the 700mhz. I can see VOIP with att phones having wifi built in in the near future. imagin that... no reception at your house in the malibu hills using your iPhone... wait a minute, i can make a call over the internet at my place?? oh ya what the future has for us. @teqsun.com:

Being in the wireless industry for my whole career, this is the most interesting time to this point as I know everyone is aware. The thing that has stuck me is to this point, I have not been surprised. Now I am just going to join the group of people who are only going to view the ending rather than listen to prognostication. People I talk to in the industry say it is pretty simple. Big fish will remain in the 700Mhz pond, with one or two surprises at the end. I'll wait to hear. Of course, anyone have any thoughts? LOL