@tensai: I hope it's as the article implies, and the media is HDDs fed by internet downloads. (For god's sake, with an option to backup or re-download if needed!)
Barring that, I'd say solid state storage. Sorta like the Atari and NES cartridges of yore, but with more giggly bites.
Physical media will exist for a long time (imo), because a lot of people like to cling to cover art and such and have something to display. Plus what happens when you HDD full of movies crashes? Wouldn't it be useful to have that physical media backup? I'm sure it will eventually end, but not anytime soon. So I believe no, the era of physical media is not over, not anytime soon that is.
@350z-racer: I think it's coming to a very close end. My covert art of CDs and DVDs look better on my computer than they do printed.
And I have them all on back up via my portable hard drive. I can fit days of music and hours of movies in my pocket. But the price of storage is still to high. Once the price of storage comes down, internet speeds increase, and more sources of downloadable content are available, physical media won't be the main source for movies.
@macpatrick: Ive seen external 1TB drives for $99 over at newegg. Of course they will get cheaper to a point, but what the hell, man? A 1GB drive used to cost that much. If you are constantly waiting "for the price to drop", or the "next best thing", then you will always be waiting.
@PaintTheSkyGrey: well CD's took things from 3.5MB to 700mb so they were defiantly useful. Thanks to all the great things about CD-R it became quite beneficial to have them in the computer for backup purposes (to transfer photos and what not)
but now with USB sticks, you dont need the slow process of a disc format burning to transfer music and photos.
Also Blu-ray burning is simply too expensive. Each disc can cost $25 (per disc!!!). so it is just impractical considering you can get an external pocket drive for the same cost.
I used to work for a Sony plant in Indiana that made DVDs. They are made the same way, and it appears that they are made with the exact same machines. The data is actually molded into the polycarbonate disc.
@Dan Crouse: They're made exactly the same way as DVDs (and CDs for that matter). The only real difference is in the mastering process. When I was last at a pressing plant in Germany (about three years ago I think) they couldn't decide whether to upgrade their equipment for HD or Blu-Ray. At the time, neither format was beating the other. They were thinking to go HD because they could actually modify their existing machinery to cope. If they went Blu-Ray they'd have to replace it all with new kit. I hope to god they didn't go the HD way....
I've watched these lovely little discs being manufactured many, many times and it NEVER ceases to amaze me. Never do I think to myself "oh no, gotta watch the discs being made again". It's great. The lacquer application (picture 6) is my favourite. It's dolloped onto the centre of the disc while it's not moving and then each disc is spun extremely fast and the centrifugal force alone spreads the coating evenly across the disc. Wow.
@deliciousburglar: and yes, the data is etched onto the master (at the mastering stage, funnily enough) first with a laser. the resulting "mothers" and "father" are what's used to produce the "mould" that all the discs are pressed from.
@taking_this_easy: It all looks like a fancy record making operation. Vinyl records, CDs, DVDs, and Blu-Rays are all made the same way, sorta. I cannot wait until the age of the spinning disk is over and all media will be downloadable files.
@mac_kix_windoze: Yes, this is exactly right. The master, also called the "glass master" is a mold of the notches in the disc. If only we could have seen a Polka-Dot-Door video on this factory...
Well... there goes my awesome view of BDs. I always pictured these giant lasers shooting from 50 feet away controlled by little oompa-loompas. Each disk was an adventure to make, and unskilled-laser-aimers would accidentally shoot their colleagues who would vaporize instantly. Finally, in an epic plume of smoke and debris, a disk would emerge.
I don't want Blu-rays anymore... ruined! Ruined I say!
Edited by GitEmSteveDave_OverSleptThisMorn at 07/28/09 9:02 AM
GitEmSteveDave_OverSleptThisMorn was starred
GitEmSteveDave_OverSleptThisMorn was unstarred
there are systems that will artificially accelerate aging used to test products. wonder if he ever tried to use one of those?
I rest easy knowing my floppy disks have been tested to survive until 3009. I would just hate to lose my collection of pixelated cats made in MacPaint.
@Tarv: Yes, but you are forgetting that, as a zombie, you won't have any blood flow...and that's kinda critical for, uh, certain pr0n-related functions.
How about just sticking the info on a couple TB HDD... then stick the HDD in a magnetically shielded box and be done with it? Info on a HDD if not turned on or not magnetically messed with should last forever right?
@Bertone Zero77: Google published a study of disk drive failures based on their own experience that debunked conventional wisdom linking disk activity to longevity.
@frigg: Interesting, so based on that info it really has nothing to do with sheer amount of usage but more with disk-errors created by such usage. Therefore one could argue that leaving the data on a HDD that is off will not improve the longevity of the information by lack of read-use but by reducing the likelihood of errors created by users accessing the information.
@Bertone Zero77: It's been a while since I read it, but I recall that the study basically says disks fail because they break down, not necessarily because of read/write errors, or because of conventional wisdom based on use. For example, a lot of people think it's good to spin up a stored drive from time to time to keep it mechanically viable, which seems to make sense. However, Google's study says it doesn't really matter.
Because it's Google, their study has heft since it involves a disk population larger than any other ever studied.
They conclude: "Surprisingly, we found that temperature and activity levels were much less correlated with drive failures than previously reported."
08/26/09
08/26/09
Barring that, I'd say solid state storage. Sorta like the Atari and NES cartridges of yore, but with more giggly bites.
08/25/09
08/25/09
08/25/09
And I have them all on back up via my portable hard drive. I can fit days of music and hours of movies in my pocket. But the price of storage is still to high. Once the price of storage comes down, internet speeds increase, and more sources of downloadable content are available, physical media won't be the main source for movies.
08/26/09
08/25/09
08/25/09
but now with USB sticks, you dont need the slow process of a disc format burning to transfer music and photos.
Also Blu-ray burning is simply too expensive. Each disc can cost $25 (per disc!!!). so it is just impractical considering you can get an external pocket drive for the same cost.
08/01/09
08/01/09
08/01/09
08/01/09
08/01/09
07/28/09
07/28/09
07/28/09
pressing is better and more accurate, probably faster, and each dvd is exactly the same physically (barring errors)
07/28/09
I've watched these lovely little discs being manufactured many, many times and it NEVER ceases to amaze me. Never do I think to myself "oh no, gotta watch the discs being made again". It's great. The lacquer application (picture 6) is my favourite. It's dolloped onto the centre of the disc while it's not moving and then each disc is spun extremely fast and the centrifugal force alone spreads the coating evenly across the disc. Wow.
07/28/09
07/28/09
07/28/09
07/28/09
07/28/09
I don't want Blu-rays anymore... ruined! Ruined I say!
07/28/09
I have another new release for you....
But I was picturing more like Gunka-Lunka's. They're more surly, and thus, cooler.
07/17/09
07/17/09
I rest easy knowing my floppy disks have been tested to survive until 3009. I would just hate to lose my collection of pixelated cats made in MacPaint.
07/17/09
07/17/09
07/17/09
07/17/09
07/17/09
07/17/09
07/17/09
http://labs.google.com/papers/disk_failures.html
07/17/09
07/17/09
Because it's Google, their study has heft since it involves a disk population larger than any other ever studied.
They conclude: "Surprisingly, we found that temperature and activity levels were much less correlated with drive failures than previously reported."
07/17/09
06/15/09
Come to think of it, why do they even sell blu-ray discs in OKC in the first place?
06/15/09
06/15/09
And I'm sure all the folks in Texas and North Carolina are enjoying it in exactly that format.