We're near the limit of Moore's law now on single processing cores. As we shrink the transistors below the 29 nanometer process, quantum mechanics start to show up in the macro universe that make reliable computing difficult. We are kind of cheating Moore's law now with multi-core CPUs, and if we accept that this adheres to his law, then there really is no limit to the number of cores you can stick together.
i remember reading a few days ago that NVidia announced a 512 core chip for high end super computing. Jinkies!
This is assuming that we have not hit the singularity by this point, at which time computers will be designing themselves and will be able to exceed all our expectations ^_^
@HAZman27: that's what i'm talking about!! i wanna wake up and have a news brief that a super computer took it upon itself to cure the world's resource challenges and nobody has to go to work anymore, just go to www.god.com and ask for whatever you like and wait for delivery by the nanny on the jetsons!
Electrons are still the size of electrons and you need a certain space for each electron to move. We'll run into a limit with conventional chips withing 10 years. Unless we develop somethign other then just making then smaller. Which I'm sure we will. No computer can be too fast.
The cheapest types of computer already fulfills most peoples needs. The power of computers will be meaningless in a few years as broadband becomes more accessible.
@valanchan: Sadly, I think the processors will still have to improve as companies build websites with all sorts of interactive content and media that will bring older computers to their knees.
I know of a company that just launched an all new retail website, and it flat out requires 2gb of ram, broadband or better, nearly a dual processor to shop on it.
Makes me chuckle that they just made it so a quarter of their customers can't shop anymore.
So Moore's law just doubled? Somehow I'm not surprised by this. I bet the next time it gets doubled will be half the time it took to double this time around.
"Moore's Law" has nothing to do with processor speed. It was a statement regarding the number of transistors in a processor doubling about every two years, which is not the same as doubling speed or processing power. [www.intel.com]
At least Intel get's the statement of the law correct if no one else does.
@Andy Mayhew: Thanks for this. A lot of people get Moore's Law wrong because processing power has happened to correlate with transistor density over the years, but the two are not the same thing.
Well this is for reversible computing (since it's based on quantum operations), whereas modern computing is based on non-reversible circuits. Reversible computing isn't more or less powerful than non-reversible in computational terms (i.e., they're all turing complete), but it is different. It'd be very tricky to implement modern computer languages and such on a reversible computer. The upper bound is certainly lower in non-reversible computing, although how much lower I'm not sure... generally you take a hit with non-reversible logic since it runs a lot hotter.
"...getting shrinking..." I know it has nothing to do with the article and we all make mistake, but I LOVE this. Please don't change it! (But if you do, might I suggest "getting shrinkier..."
Moore's Law only describes the number of components per integrated circuit of a given size (or the chip complexity). Vertical designs and alternate components to transistors should easily be able to uphold the trend for many years to come.
@Hello Mister Walrus: until mccain i think everyone thought of maverick as a good thing. I guess when you apply it to some old dude everyone starts thinking being a maverick is a bad thing.
look at Mel Gibson in the movie Maverick! now he was cool!
10/14/09
i remember reading a few days ago that NVidia announced a 512 core chip for high end super computing. Jinkies!
10/14/09
Moore's law is that the number of transistors will double--NOT that speed will double.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law
10/14/09
Yep, Moore's law does NOT REFER TO SPEED.
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
[en.wikipedia.org]
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
I know of a company that just launched an all new retail website, and it flat out requires 2gb of ram, broadband or better, nearly a dual processor to shop on it.
Makes me chuckle that they just made it so a quarter of their customers can't shop anymore.
10/14/09
10/14/09
At least Intel get's the statement of the law correct if no one else does.
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
10/14/09
09/01/09
09/01/09
09/01/09
09/01/09
01/16/09
01/16/09
01/16/09
01/16/09
01/16/09
01/16/09
01/16/09
01/16/09
Please don't say that word.
01/16/09
look at Mel Gibson in the movie Maverick! now he was cool!
01/16/09