The reason this is even a subject again is because of an oddly (and perhaps tellingly) vague piece posted on the the WSJ's Digits blog by Ben Charny, who flat out claims that that Apple plans to use CES to replace Macworld, which it walked away from last year:

Apple plans to attend the show's 2010 version, marking the first time in memory the Cupertino, Calif., consumer-electronics giant will be there.

That sounds clear enough, but it's buried in a piece that otherwise seems to be about how the chief executive of the CEA, Gary Shapiro, can't get in touch with Steve Jobs. But hey, he's probably just being vague, and drew his conclusion from quotes that he didn't include! That's what journalists do, sometimes! Except the meeting from which Charny drew his conclusion was a dinner with multiple attendees, one of whom happens to be ex Engadget editor and current CEA advisor Ryan Block. He took issue with Charny's reading of events:

[I]t's also specious and flatly wrong. I was seated directly across from Gary, and present for the entire conversation, wherein a dozen or so other journos chatted with him and one another. When asked about the CEA's ongoing contact with Jobs, Gary joked that every once in a while Steve might even return his email — to which we all laughed knowingly. Yep, that's our Steve. Shapiro went on to mention that Apple was a great and long-standing supporter of the efforts of the CEA, but that their only direct involvement was sending a check each year to pay their membership dues.

As far as the WSJ post goes, this is pretty damning. But it really just rules out Charny's version of this dinner, not the possibility that Apple will actually go to CES. As far as that question goes, we're left with the same evidence we had last time rumors like this went around, all the way back in January. The verdict then, and still, is that they probably won't: January's a pretty terrible time to launch new products, but more to the point, Apple doesn't even care about industry trade shows—which CES epitomizes in all the worst ways—anymore. Their statement from all those months ago hasn't been followed up:

Apple is reaching more people in more ways than ever before, so like many companies, trade shows have become a very minor part of how Apple reaches its customers. The increasing popularity of Apple's Retail Stores, which more than 3.5 million people visit every week, and the Apple.com website enable Apple to directly reach more than a hundred million customers around the world in innovative new ways.

Apple would gain nothing from going large at CES, so until a credible story comes along that says otherwise, that's the word. [WSJ via Engadget]

These confusing little monsters have been popping up all over Computex. They're essentially mobile internet devices, except outfitted with voice-ready 3G SIM slots and marketed as handsets. Like most Mobile Internet Devices, they're Atom-based Windows XP devices, which means their batteries last, oh, about three hours, and that they're too big to be pocketable. As for why anyone would want a phone number permanently assigned to one of these devices, I have no idea.

The whole thing is even stranger when you consider what else is being shown at Computex, namely products based on Intel's upcoming Moorestown platform and Qualcomm's Snapdragon, two solutions that could potentially be used to build a new generation of more powerful, MID-like smartphones, that, at least for the tasks at hand, would actually outperform these clunky Atom mongrels, while lasting long enough to actually consider using. Oh, Computex. [Pocketables]

While Cult of Mac's—Wired's Mac centric blog—source says “it’s a done deal" citing "friends who work at Apple", this doesn't match Apple's previous statement regarding trade shows:

Apple is reaching more people in more ways than ever before, so like many companies, trade shows have become a very minor part of how Apple reaches its customers. The increasing popularity of Apple’s Retail Stores, which more than 3.5 million people visit every week, and the Apple.com website enable Apple to directly reach more than a hundred million customers around the world in innovative new ways.

Apple has been steadily scaling back on trade shows in recent years, including NAB, Macworld New York, Macworld Tokyo and Apple Expo in Paris.

If Apple is shifting from Macworld and tradeshows to do their own low cost show-n-tells whenever they want, it doesn't make much sense to believe they are "going large" at that big mammoth-graveyardish wasteland of electronics and press releases that some people like to call CES. Or does it? Whatever it is, something smells here, and it's not all that bacon. [Cult of Mac]

If you ask me, though, I'm with Wilson: one less trade show is a good thing. And even though they're pledging activity for 2010, I don't see Macworld staying alive much longer after that. [Macworld via Mac Rumors]

Apple's cited reason for the withdrawal of Steve Jobs from the Macworld keynote, and the subsequent withdrawal of Apple from Macworld altogether, was that:

Apple is reaching more people in more ways than ever before, so like many companies, trade shows have become a very minor part of how Apple reaches its customers....Apple has been steadily scaling back on trade shows in recent years, including NAB, Macworld New York, Macworld Tokyo and Apple Expo in Paris.

This is true, but I don't think anyone really considers Macworld a "trade show" like CES, CEDIA or IFA.

It's a show, sure, but it's one where Stevie J is the main attraction. Maybe there are a few retail buyers here and there who need to hit up Macworld to see what's hot for Macs, but Apple doesn't really do this stuff for the attention of retail buyers anyway. When was the last time Macworld was a serious forum for independent software and accessories? Macworld will probably die without Apple, but I think it's because Macworld is Apple.

These other trade shows are buckling for different reasons. I can't speak to NAB or AES, which primarily foment business-to-business dealings, and which Apple did in the past support. I can speak to the myriad consumer electronics and computer shows that occur throughout the year, none of which have featured Apple at any time in my memory.

The easiest rationale for the decline of these shows is the current credit crunch and global economic downturn. A crappy economy means fewer awesome toys, one supposes. But even before the current crisis, a few factors were choking trade shows where it matters:

A true trade show is where retailers go to buy their year's inventory. But consolidation of the country's retailers into Best Buy, Amazon, Walmart and some other guys makes it easy for companies like Sony, Samsung, Mitsubishi and more to just set up shop in some sunny beachy spot and fly in the likeliest buyers. (Or, in Walmart's case, for makers to truck a bunch of crap to Bentonville, AR and see what sticks.)

Since showing up at a trade show doesn't threaten that big ole Best Buy order, it becomes optional at best, and an unneeded expense at worst.

The same goes for the media—a large side effect of the show. Companies don't need Macworld and CES to launch product. Sure, it's nice to see devices in person, but they're often mockups, and useless for making real judgment calls.

As fun as it is to rush off after the holidays to some convention center to eat crappy food, lose sleep and swap cold virus strains, the January time frame for Macworld and CES makes no sense for readers of blogs and other media, since they're not looking for new gadgets at that time. Again, retail buyers need to plan ahead, but for reviewers and consumers in the middle of the retail cycle's buying slump, this is more candy than sustenance.

Before the internet was a viable medium, or the CE space was big enough where many companies could spend in the hundreds of millions for mainstream TV/radio marketing, centralized marketing though trade shows was a cheap and easy way to get the news out. Echoing Apple's statement, now that they can get the word out online—and through retail locations and other more innovative outreach programs—spending money on PR and marketing not just to reporters but to millions of actual consumers, the tradeshow take the role of an opportunistic middleman rather than a needed facilitator.

One big threat to US trade shows is the declining value of the dollar. This year and last, we saw more and more stuff debut at IFA in Berlin than we did at NY's summer shows and CEDIA in September, in part because Asian electronics makers are encouraged to sell more to people who pay in stronger currency. CEDIA this past year was fun, but nearly every hot product we went to cover had already been announced in some form or another in Germany.

CEDIA's bread and butter isn't gadgetry, though, like IFA's is. It's really about home-theater components and systems engineered for custom installation inside rich people's homes. In this country, that's still dominated by an association of independent installers (known as, surprise surprise, CEDIA). And those guys have rich customers who don't actually suffer through depressions as much as you'd like them to think.

My guess is that while CEDIA and IFA are safe (for different reasons mentioned above), CES will change and probably shrink, and Macworld will likely die. Soon.

Primarily, we think it's lack of serious newsdraw. Last year's highlights were mid-level at best: iRobot's Looj gutter cleaner, Palm's Centro and Gateway's One. September is already late for companies introducing stuff for Christmas, and two big electronics shows—IFA and CEDIA—already provide far too much expo space just before it.

It may even be that trade shows are no longer that big a deal: A combination of the internet and FedEx is all that online pubs really need to bring you a nonstop stream of gadget news and in-person impressions throughout the year.

I for one will miss seeing all the company reps and catching up, but I won't miss the vast tradeshow floors, booth after booth after booth of stuff we already covered. [DigitalLife]

Update: I must've overlooked Caroline McCarthy's explanation of the cancellation, but my guesses were pretty close to the truth—they just couldn't put together a compelling enough show. Ziff's chief blamed "poor economic conditions," but I'm not sure if he means the country's, the industry's or just his own.

The mega-event will at least be seeing some major changes, because apparently vendors are getting sick and tired of the arms race associated with the annual event, where each tries to one-up the other with ever more-expensive liquor-and-caviar parties for the press, while achieving new heights of schwag giveaways and "booth" opulence. Perhaps companies are thinking, what next? Giving away Rolls Royces and Rolexes?

While some sources are saying E3 may shrink to a wisp of its former self, others pronounce the event dead. We're in contact with officials at the group in charge of E3, the Entertainment Software Association (ESA), trying to get to the bottom of this with some sort of official statement. More as we get it. – Charlie White

E3 Cancelled?! [Kotaku]