A Comprehensive Look into the Future of Smartphone Screen SizesAlex Barredo - Post PC5/29/14 4:20pmFiled to: smartphones753EditPromoteShare to KinjaToggle Conversation toolsGo to permalinkI analysed data of more than 7000 models of smartphones, PDAs and similar gadgets. I restricted my research then to only 4096 of those, the ones released after the initial announcement of the original iPhone, circa January 2007, to observe the trends in the modern smartphone industry.AdvertisementThe data refers to released models, and doesn't directly refer their sales in the market or consumer preferences.Screens are getting biggerThat's no mystery. What was "monstrous" seven years ago now is "too small". Whole societies are getting used to two-hands use of their smartphones, and the software is adapting too.(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpLets look at the average screen size. It took five years for the average screen size to get from 3" to 4", but only two more to get to the current average of 5".(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpIt took five years for the average screen size to get from 3" to 4", but only two more to get to the current average of 5".What is big"Big" is totally subjective to a person's likes, hand size, culture or even fashion awareness. But, observing the data divided at the 4.5" point, we have a better understanding of the trend.(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpcIf we take a closer look at only the last two years, we see an astonishing trend towards 4.5" and bigger screens. Smartphones with 4.5" screens or more were ~10% two years ago, now they represent ~80% of all new models.(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpcSmartphones with 4.5" screens or more were ~10% two years ago, now they represent ~80% of all new modelsThis is most likely due to manufacturers being able to create devices with smaller bezels, the need of bigger batteries and general specification warfare.Not only screensA screen is the biggest defining item of a smartphone's total size, but bezels around the screen are needed to grip the device, place buttons, cameras, speakers, microphones, and even some still have physical keyboards, thus adding to the overall size. Now the trend of overall size is upwards, but modern smartphones first got smaller before they got bigger again.(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpcFor comparison, a 4" iPhone is ~72 sq. cm (~11 sq. inches). Manufacturers always were driven to make cellphones, both dumb and smart, smaller and lighter, until the software landscape was dramatically changed in 2007-2010, when a new era of computing and networking pushed them to rethink what a whole computer in a pocket should do.Bezels are getting smallerA couple months ago published this chart, which shed some light into a until then obscure metric for most people, the screen-to-bezel ratio of a handful of selected and popular smartphones.AdvertisementAdvertisementLess bezels allow for bigger screens without increasing the size of the device, but, at least with today's technology, a minimal bezel is required for usability. To add historical perspective, we can observe this ratio in percentage points, i.e: how much of the front of a smartphone is just screen.(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpcAbout ManufacturersIn these regards we are observing, Samsung seems to lead the pack. The original Galaxy Note, with 5.3" was deemed too big, or at best: a niche phone. Even started a new category named the phablet.The average screen size of a new non-Samsung smartphone when the 5.3" Note was released was 3.8"The average screen size of a new non-Samsung smartphone when the 5.3" Note was released was 3.8". Less than three years later, most OEMs are making their non-phablet flagships in the 5" or more category.Samsung leadsDid Samsung skate where the puck was going? was it mere luck due to a more of a throwing spaghetti to the wall and see what sticks maneuver? We will never know for sure, but the data is clear: Samsung went bigger before the market went bigger.(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpWhen Samsung started shipping Android smartphones, their screens sizes jumped. Their first, the I7500, was a 3.2 inches phone with a huge bezel, released on April 2009. Before Android, Samsung made tiny screens.Apple lagsNot implying that bigger screens are better or worse, Apple does lag in this trend. Apple started in the 3.5" screen size when the market average was 3.2", and remain there, only to get a 4" screen iPhone when the market average was 4.3", Apple went from lead to lag.(c) Alex Barredo, @somospostpThe average smartphone screen size when the original iPhone was launched was 3.2", when the iPhone 5 launched, it was 4.3"AdvertisementSponsoredI won't argue with rumors, so what would Apple do is not something I can't predict, but Apple has a generally lower screen-to-bezel ratio due to hardware constraints in the iPhone such as the home button in the lower bezel, making an iPhone with a even bigger screen harder to grip with one hand, compared to a Samsung or LG device with similar screen size.ConclusionsSmartphones and their screens are getting bigger while bezels recede. We can't know where the trend will go in two years, but seems more likely to stabilize around 5"-5.5" than to go back to lower than 5" values.This post originally appears on Medium. It was republished here with the author's permission. For more, you can follow Alex Barredo on Twitter here.