Sony's latest Blu-ray player, the BDP-S300, will have the "same capabilities" as the current $999 BDP-S1, but cost only $599. In comparison, the cheapest HD DVD player (the Toshiba HD-A1) is about $399 to $499 depending on where you look.
With the price difference just $100 or so, it seems like Sony's bridged the gap in such a way that only movie selection will determine what the average consumer buys. As for the discs themselves, if you've seen our Frankenfight, gives the slight edge to Blu-ray and HD DVD depending on whether you like audio or extras. Otherwise, Superman's super bulge looks just as big on Blu-ray as it does on HD DVD.