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Dvorak Warns of Impending Web 2.0 Bubble, Pees His Pants

If there's one thing John C. Dvorak knows, it's how hard it is to come up with a strong opinion on a unique subject for a column every week. Hey, it's OK, Dvorak! You can't win 'em all! This week, he shrilly warns us of the impending "Web 2.0" bubble. His reasoning? There have been bubbles in the past. Don't you remember?! And this one is going to be even worse. Sorry Dvory, but I call bullshit.


Call me a skeptic, but I don't see this bubble growing to the point of the initial dot-com bubble. I mean, can you really imagine the stock market going crazy over a bunch of IPOs of Facebook clones? Sure, there are a lot of crappy ideas getting funding right now just because they say "social networking" or "user generated content" in their business plans, but it takes more than new sites being launched to make a bubble.

The interesting thing about these types of sites is that it's really easy to see if they're going to take off relatively soon. If a site doesn't have any users, it doesn't have any content and is therefore useless. If it's loaded with people, then it'll be successful. No one is going to get excited about an IPO of a mediocre site with 250 users. Go back to complaining about the iPhone, Dvorak. [PC Mag]


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I'd say that there could be a bubble bursting but web 2.0 seems like it's a narrow target. The first pop was from poor business. Now there are raised expectations. But I get the feeling that instead of demanding that "internet" companies havea sound business plan, investors have only marginally raised expectations for tech and at the same time lowered the business sense expectations for everyone else. They met the tech businesses half way. Net effect: everyone else looks at risk less wisely but it still was an improvement for tech stock speculation. I don't see that as a good thing.