Gizmodo
Stop looting supermarkets and get back to your homes, because NASA is saying that "doomsday" asteroid Apophis doesn't have any significant chance of impacting Earth in 2036, basically classifying the 13-year-old German student as a moronic smartypants. In fact, even if it hit, it wouldn't have been the end of the world. Or that's what we would like to believe, looking at all the information we have compiled:
NASA said in a statement today that they haven't talked with any German student and that, from what they have read, he's absolutely wrong. The student said that NASA's math was erroneous because they didn't take into account the probability of Apophis hitting a geosynchronous satellite, which would have made the "apocalyptical" piece of rock hit the Earth in its next orbit, basically killing most life in the planet a lot of the life over a large region, with an impact energy estimated in 880 megatons of TNT, Jerry Bruckheimer-style.
To give you an idea of how powerful this is, the original atomic bomb that exploded over Hiroshima unleashed only 13 kilotons of TNT, while the combined energy of all explosives used in World War 2 was an estimated five megatons. Or compared to a more modern example: the largest bomb ever detonated in this planet was 50 megatons, the Soviet RDS-220 hydrogen bomb or Tsar Bomba (you have to love the fact that Humanity can be more destructive than any asteroid passing by.)
The space agency, however, says that there's no chance of Apophis hitting a satellite because it's not going to get anywhere near the "main belt of geosynchronous satellites," saying that the Near Earth Object Program at Pasadena's Jet Propulsion Laboratory maintains their previous hit estimate: 1 in 45,000 chance of Apophis destroying some Earthlings in 2035. And a 1 in 23 million hit probability in 2037.
This makes Apophis a type 0 in the Torino scale. In other words: "NO HAZARD. The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. Also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage." Quite far from the other extreme alternative, the type 0: "A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often."
But even if it Apophis hit Earth, according to NASA it would not be devastating for planetary life. The effects would have been bad, yes, depending on the composition and the area of impact, but it wouldn't have been enough to start a global climate change according to the projections. It could have destroyed something like the West Coast with a giant tsunami, if it fell on the Pacific, but not obliterate all life in the Northern Hemisphere.
In any case, we are glad that this is the case. First, that a) this German kid is an idiot, b) the news agencies are stupid, and c) we are even more stupid for believing them. Still, our favorite tin foil hat theory is that this may all be a conspiracy to hide Humanity from the prospect of certain extinction. Your bet, in the poll:
NASA Statement on Student Asteroid Calculations
WASHINGTON — The Near-Earth Object Program Office at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., has not changed its current estimates for the very low probability (1 in 45,000) of an Earth impact by the asteroid Apophis in 2036.
Contrary to recent press reports, NASA offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and have had no correspondence with a young German student, who claims the Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate.
This student's conclusion reportedly is based on the possibility of a collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close approach in April 2029. However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is exceedingly remote.
Therefore, consideration of this satellite collision scenario does not affect the current impact probability estimate for Apophis, which remains at 1 in 45,000.
[Apophis, Torino Hazard Scale, NASA Near Earth Object Program, and NASA News Release]
Comments
o_o
Which satellite and what sort of strike are they using to calculate this? To say that if it hits a satellite one time it will hit the earth next time seems a bit far fetched.
They are saying that the student report is not true either.
If the asteriod hits a sattellite in 2029 why will it take another 7 years to collide with Earth? And how old will Bruce Willis, Ben Afflek, Steve Buscemi, and Owen Wilson be by then? Will they be up to the challenge?
We've never been to the moon.
How heavy is that sattellite that it can be enough to change the asteroid's trajectory?
Hey, I definetly trust a German student over our fucked up government. Please excuse my language ladies.
@JBKing: We only really need Bruce. lol
@JBKing:
Because it's gonna take a wide orbit around Earth and it's path will collide with Earth's path or something like that. This was proposed a while back before this whole satellite thing. Oh and Owen Wilson won't be going unless Ben Stiller comes with him as the manic stow-away.
@kydrice: Let's throw in Will Smith and Jessica Alba to round out the cast.
Is it just me or does the date for destruction keep changing? I mean come on Giz, first its 2029, then its 2035, then its 2036! Maybe the robots are screwing with us? F'n robots always messing with our math.
@ripfire4: I could be wrong, but I believe the word "satellite" in this context it referring to an large interstellar body, as in a huge space rock...I don't think they are talking about a man made communication satellite.
13 year olds generally are morons.
im sorry but this is all i could think about...
+ Watch video
@GOKOR: Agreed. I look back on that year of my life as nothing but fail.
@soulman: So.. there are huge rocks within the earth's main belt of geosynchronous orbit?
@ripfire4: "Satellites" doesn't necessarily mean the things that monitor the weather (and such).
[en.wikipedia.org]
@soulman:
I would assume that also, because if a huge rock comes close enough to take out a relatively small piece of metal that's orbiting our planet, we're already fucked, regardless of that piece of metal.
@jdhuck: No, we need rosie o'donnel. She can be the hero that has to stay behind and blow up the nuke manually, thus sacrificing herself for the sake of human kind. What we won't tell her is that it's actually NOT going to hit the Earth. Perfect way to get rid of her though, no?
everyone knows that all we need is Harrison Ford and Aerosmith.
@Papsky: SHNIEL!!! I vant to play UNREAL TOURNAMENT!!!
I wish nasa would just admit they don't have any fragin idea whats gonna happen. Predicting the orbit of a small astroid like this to the accuracy of earth collision is like predicting the distance a golf ball will travel to the mm. You just cant do it.
@AqueousBeef: You could always try Bruce Willis and Aerosmith.
@Papsky: OMG, where the hell were the kids parents?
I would have been like "SHUT UP JOHNNY OR IM TAKING UR EFFIN UNREAL SHIZ AWAY"
[although he probably would have thrown the keyboard at me]
Damn. Can we loot anyway? Just a little? How about wild uninhibited sex in the streets? Is that right out too?
Meh, the kid made a mistake.
atleast the NASA atleast recalculated ehat ever it is(ofcourse I Assume that).
I can't believe there are those among us who would think the whole landing on the moon bit was a fake.
@AqueousBeef: Rosie O'Donnel wouldn't have to blow up anything. Due to her significant mass and gravitational pull, merely placing her in the vicinity of the asteroid would be enough to divert its path.
@ripfire4:
larger commercial satellites have a wet mass of around 7 metric tons
Wait a second, why is NASA responding to some 13 year old kid? Will NASA respond if I issued a press release stating that the moon is indeed made out of cheese
I want to believe.
I sure hope that someone at NASA isn't getting decimal and metric systems confused again.
2035 huh?
Hmm should be plenty of time to bring the fricken lasers online before then.
@wchurchill1945: I think you need to reread what you've written here. Decimal and metric aren't in opposition, metric and "whatever the hell units the U.S. uses" are however.
Satellites that are orbiting the Earth don't "weigh" anything. @ripfire4:
@chonnes: "Satellites that are orbiting the Earth don't "weigh" anything."
True. They tend to mass a helluva lot, though....
A conspiracy would require a base level of competence that hasn't been present in nearly a decade. I mean, NASA was being run by a 24 year-old college drop-out who ordered NASA scientists to stop pushing the Big Bang Theory. Does that sound like an agency capable of a cover-up?
cod:uo ftmfw
Who to believe....A 13 year old kid....or NASA? Tough one.
@soulman:
@spaceman37:
NASA's brief very distinctly references collision with an artificial satellite, not a natural one.
@minimini:
With Apophis weighing in at 2.1e10 kg (according to Wikipedia), i wouldn't expect a major deviation in flight path even if it did collide with multiple satellites. at least, not enough to result in a 3 order of magnitude change in probability.
"basically killing most life in the planet"
uhhh, no. This kind of strike can level a large city, not destroy humanity.
When NASA went to the moon they brought back rocks. Everyone knows the moon is made of cheese! Does NASA think we're stupid, bringing back rocks??? Come on NASA. At least you could have brought back some Earth cheese to make your fake moon landing look more authentic!
All of this proves one thing:
If you're under 25, don't worry about saving for your children's college education. In fact, don't even worry about what regions have the best school systems.
Anyone who has watched enough movies about life in a post-apocalyptic dystopian future knows that reading and writing and trigonometry and social studies and AP European history and Latin are useless. You need to know kung fu, how to make and properly toss a molotov cocktail at an HK and how to one-arm reload a pump-action .12 gauge shotgun.
The greatest challenge our children will face is not an economy where the United States is no longer the dominant player or a geopolitical environment where the US is not a superpower. It doesn't matter whether the present influx of undocumented immigrants from Mexico and other Central and South American countries destroy the "traditional" culture or whether secularism destroys religion in America. We don't even need to worry about global warming or rising sea levels.
Our children's challenge will be how to avoid mutants, infected, zombies and the walking dead, pseudo-vampires, alien symbiote-controlled people, self-aware killer robots and CHUDs while living in the sewers and hulks of decaying buildings.
@OMG! Ponies!:
Don't forget, killer klowns from outer space.
@OMG! Ponies!:
i cant wait
@jdhuck: Jessica Alba won't be going... She'll be with me where it'll be safe. I'll protect her!
But, then again, by the time this comes around, I'll be in my late 60s. I seriously doubt I'll really care that much.
If it hits a geosynchronous satellite, it's already close enough that there is no way that it can NOT hit. If it gets that close, hitting a satellite isn't going to affect its course one bit.
@