So El Niño was supposed to arrive this morning, and in true California style, it hasn’t showed up yet. Be warned, though, when El Niño does get here, it’s in the mood to fucking party—and it’s drinking to get drunk.

The first of four El Niño-powered storms will be here soon (any minute now, I promise), with the heaviest rain hitting California on Tuesday. Up to two inches of precipitation is expected in LA from a single storm—the city gets about three inches during the entire month in a typical January. In fact, above-average rainfall is predicted for all of California and much of the West for the next two weeks.

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Okay, so rain. Lots of rain. Which means flooding, debris flow, and, if you live in certain places, big storm surges or a few feet of snow. Then what? NASA climatologist Bill “One storm after another like a conveyor belt” Patzert, who is pretty reliably the most quotable climatologist in the business, said this to the LA Times: “I think this is the beginning of the beginning.”

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So, you know.

Pray.

Follow the author at @awalkerinLA