Kalshi and The Weather Company have teamed up on prediction markets centered on something humans have very little control over and that are a lot harder to insider trade on.
The two companies announced a new strategic partnership Thursday in which Kalshi will use The Weather Company’s data to verify outcomes for some of its weather-related markets. Meanwhile, The Weather Company will incorporate Kalshi’s real-time probability data across of The Weather Channel app and weather.com.
It turns out weather markets are already big business on Kalshi. Trading volume across the platform’s climate and weather category has grown 500% year over year and is on pace to reach $1.1 billion in annualized volume, according to a press release.
“Weather is one of the fastest-growing and most crucial categories at Kalshi because it affects everyone – from individuals and businesses to governments,” said Will Brackett, head of partnerships at Kalshi, in a statement.
Kalshi is also pitching these markets as a way for businesses to hedge against weather-related risks, pointing to examples ranging from “ice cream shops managing unseasonably cool summers to logistics firms managing precipitation impact.”
The partnership appears to have been in the works for a while.
Weather.com has already been incorporating Kalshi markets into some of its stories. A recent article about July tying for the hottest month on record, for example, included Kalshi probability data for the market “Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?”
Those stories also include a disclosure explaining the arrangement: “We provide certain data Kalshi uses to resolve markets, and Kalshi provides market data featured in content like this article.”
The disclosure also says The Weather Company could earn a fee if readers use its links to open a Kalshi account and trade on the platform.
Meanwhile, markets like “Highest temperature in New York City today?” include notes stating that starting Aug. 14, the market would be settled using data from The Weather Company, replacing the National Weather Service as its previous source.
The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that the two companies are also exploring new weather markets tied to specific sporting events, including local ski conditions and the weather on marathon race days.
“Because so much of the global economy hinges on atmospheric conditions, grounding these new categories in proven meteorological science allows both consumers and businesses to improve risk management around real-world weather in ways that simply weren’t possible before,” said The Weather Company’s Vice President of Meteorology James Belanger in an emailed statement.
The Weather Company partnership also stands out because weather markets are far less vulnerable to one of the biggest concerns hanging over prediction markets—insider trading.
Kalshi and its rival Polymarket have rules restricting insider trading; however, U.S. lawmakers have introduced a bill that would ban trades on these platforms tied to outcomes that can be manipulated, following high-profile cases of users making large profits on suspiciously timed trades tied to global conflicts.
More recently, new markets on drug trials and flight cancellations have drawn scrutiny over insider trading concerns and fears they could encourage people to interfere with the clinical trials or intentionally try to get flights cancelled.
Kalshi did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
