The problem with punditry, as has often been pointed out before, is that pundits suffer no ill consequences for flubbed predictions. Last I checked, that Goldman Sachs lady who said the Dow would break, like, 1 million by the year 2010 still has a job. And all those pollsters who gave John Kerry 311 electoral votes? Richer than you or I, my friend.
So it’s with the proverbial grain of salt that I take this latest Gartner report, stating that the smartphone era is totally, totally upon us. Yeah, I agree that’s the way the wind’s blowing, and I welcome it with open arms. But some of the projections in here seem a wee bit sunny. 80 percent of “mobile workers” will be using wireless e-mail in three years time? That depends on your definition of “mobile worker,” I realize, and I’m sure having two feet and/or a bus pass ain’t what Gartner means. Still, I’m skeptical—weren’t we all supposed to have HDTV by now, too? Data prices seem too high for Joe Q. Consumer; T-Mobile’s Sidekick II data-plus-voice plan starts around $60-per-month. Unless you want to pay 20 cents-per-minute for calls on the budget $30 plan, which is nuts.
Sorry to be a wet blanket, and it’d be swell if I’m wrong—hey, more work for me. But a good rule of thumb on reports like this is treat ’em like MP3 player battery-life specs: Lop 20 percent off the estimate.
Of course, in my own case, they’ll have to pry my Treo from my cold, dead hands.
‘Smartphone’ Era to Start Next Year, Researcher Predicts [Information Week]
