Could We Have Predicted This Eruption?
When it comes to knowing when any volcano is going to erupt, we’re out of luck. “We cannot predict eruptions,” Phoenix said. “That’s the most important thing to understand.”
The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984; the lag time between then and now is the longest since modern recordings of eruptions began in the 1840s. But, as Phoenix points out, human history is tiny compared to the age of Earth, and 40 years is no time at all for the planet.
“In geologic time, this stuff happens in the blink of an eye,” Phoenix said. “In terms of the volcano’s million-year lifespan, for us, 40 years is long, but for a volcano, that happened yesterday. Mauna Loa is a baby in geologic time, and we are babies in Mauna Loa time.”
