UBS Analyst Starts Countdown for iPhone 2, Reckons Spring 2008

Illustration for article titled UBS Analyst Starts Countdown for iPhone 2, Reckons Spring 2008

UBS analyst Ben Reitzes reckons there will be a new version of the JesusPhone before Spring has sprung next year. "Our contacts in the supply chain," he claims, "point toward a new iPhone model to be release by March." A report from UBS Investment Research has raised Apple stock to an estimated $220, and author Reitzes says that it will keep rising by the time MacWorld comes around next year. And it wasn't just iPhone — all sorts of predictions have materialized from the analyst's crystal ball:

1. There will be a surge in iPod sales now that the new iPods are fully available. Disappointing sales (10.2 million units!) were down to the new models coming so late in the third quarter, but more will be shifted in the run-up to Christmas.

2. Mucho money will be flowing into the Cupertino coffers from the European carriers as the iPhone hits the old continent. And that's before you've even taken into consideration the other territories where the cell has still to materialize.

3. Next year's money spinners are expected to be an ultra-portable device, gaming initiatives and the iTunes video rental scheme. And we don't even have to mention today's Leopard launch, and the summertime iMac update, do we?


Reitzes' overwhelming feeling is that Apple's continued success is down to one thing: "It's the iPhone, stupid" and he believes that the company will continue with the strategy that brought them so much success earlier this year. "We continue to believe Apple is in the process of creating another version of the 'multiplier effect,' which we call 'Halo 2,'" he says. "Apple's fiscal 4Q results show that the build up to the launch of the iPhone and its ongoing excitement is driving sales of accessories, boosting retail traffic, and helping drive sales of iPods and especially Macs. As a result, we believe shares can continue to move higher into Macworld [Expo] in January."


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Yeah, its hard to look at Apple objectively (both negative and positive). Rooting for someone doing such great stuff is nice, but it tends to blind everyone to the fact that other people are doing "great stuff" too, just not in so many interconnected arenas simultaneously. Professional/consumer software, operating systems, computers, mobile phones, personal electronics, downloadable content. Meanwhile, companies like Sony seem to be FIGHTING between its different divisions, internal politics and a distinct lack of intercompany win-win. We'll need to see if other companies (like perhaps Microsoft, slowly but surely?) are waking up to being as synergistic with themselves. It certainly plays out in customer perception, and is at the root of the "halo" effect, for good or ill.