We snagged a second with Wolfgang Schlichting, IDC's research director for removable storage, to ask what the picture looks like for HD DVD. His thoughts? HD DVD isn't dead yet. Toshiba will probably produce dual format players (Blu-ray and HD DVD) and differentiate with HD DVD-only on the low-end. The key is for them to stay strong through the next year. One of the most insightful predictions we've heard about the format war since the Warner defection.
Prediction: HD DVD Not Dead, Toshiba Will Produce Dual Format HD Players
9:54 PM on Sun Jan 6 2008
By matt buchanan
8,230 views
41 comments












Comments
oh comon toshiba you lost give up
I hope this is true...I would hate to see a great product die so early.
Totally agree. At this point, they need dual format players to become the new standard, since they didn't manage to kill BR-D outright. Once they've got those, they can use their slightly-less-onerous-DRM policies and cheaper manufacturing costs to obtain dominance. So, ironically, Tosh needs to put out a $200 _dual-format_ player in order to win this one.
If BluRay could come up with a definite spec, and support it in all i's movies it would be the definitive winner. Does BluRay even have any BDLive or 2.0 profile movies yet?
No, I hope they die/admit defeat.
Warner made the decision to go blu-ray exclusive to help stop consumer confusion, but by continuing to fight the HD-DVD camp isn't helping anyone.
Just give in and surrender, declare this ridiculous war over.
@Seiven: Haha, that was I joke right. There aren't even any players capable of playing them so why would studios go through the trouble of producing a product that no one can even use?
Yea Toshiba needs to give and stop wasteing money on a format that has/will ultimately not be successful. They can now get a head start on the next format, whether it be holographic disks or movie downloads
I wanted HD-DVD to win, I really did. But the war is over, and Blu-Ray won. If Toshiba makes dual-format players, than what incentive do studios have to make HD-DVD releases when Blu-Ray releases are compatible with Toshiba players, the PS3, and the millions of other Blu-Ray players out there?
I was really hopping that this "War" (who are we kidding here, this is not even aggressive competition, its like the cold war or something. It could possibly be a war if lets say there was a i am a blu ray i am an hd dvd ad or some advertisement or campaigns of that sort) Any way i was hoping it would last longer so the competition could bring prices even further down.
Consumers will probably just move on and leave Tosh in the settling dust... As for myself, it's pretty much time to saddle up and buy a PS3.
"HD DVD-only on the low-end."
What kind of stupidity is that? How it that supposed to compete with "BlueRay only on the low end."?
More like "Toshiba will sell dual-format players to people who already own a lot of HD-DVD discs, but otherwise that format's dead."
Like Slyseekr, this just means it's time to get the PS3.
Wouldn't making the HD-DVD players the low end of their line be almost like saying "yea, our players aren't worth as much money as Blu-Ray"?
Dear HD DVD,
Please die now. Let Blu Ray do it's thing. Let it progress into mass consumerism so the prices of players and discs can go down considerably and we can all afford to finally ditch DVDs for the full 1080p HD glory of Blu Ray.
Ps. I wish you luck with the future task of killing the archaic optical media. Time for movies and music and media to become downloadble and sold on tiny usb keys or other digital media that does not require drives. Just plug it inb a play. Think about it. Start it. Make shit happen.
Eat A Dogs Dick.
I don't want bluray to win, at least HD-DVD has the option to be drm free.
LOL. It's *ALWAYS* some new ploy or plan with camp hd dvd. So much for Plan B, hd dvd has moved on to Plan Q. This is really laughable. Just die already.
@Mr.Purple: ...hd dvd is NOT drm free. To even suggest that is stupidity. Sure, bluray has MORE drm, but BOTH have drm.
@gary_slamson.: You were so close to making an intelligent post then you had to go and ruin it with a random dog's dick.
I understand the per gig price is similar for rewritable disks...
What is the price differential for burners?
I remember when we bought a dual format toshiba player. It played vhs and dvd. Now we kind of pretend the vhs side doesnt exist. This is kind of the same thing except i reckon people will just forget the thing plays hd dvd.
I guess this means they are going to phase out hd dvd players and try to make some money back of off blue ray
@SnakePlissken: Couldn't have said it any better myself. Perfect example.
"Toshiba will probably produce dual format players (Blu-ray and HD DVD) and differentiate with HD DVD-only on the low-end."
So pointless.
So very, very pointless.
Even if HD-DVD goes away, Blu-Ray isn't going to achieve mainstream acceptance until the price drops by at least half.
I don't think you get it.
Toshiba IS surrendering. They are accepting a blu-ray world. But they are also announcing that they will support their ONE MILLION customers -- and especially people with HD DVD disc collections -- forever.
Just like Sony did with Beta for YEARS after beta died. You could buy a new Sony Beta deck well into the 90's. Just in case yours broke and you didn't want to lose all those baby's-first-step tapes.
At least SOME company here is thinking about their customers. Sure isn't Warner, who left at least 39% of them high and dry.
So, people THINK before you dump on Toshiba here. By making blu-ray players they are surrendering, and by making duals they are being tru to their customers. If it was you on the losing end, you'd understand.
Why are blu-ray folks such ugly winners?
Why didn't I spend the extra 100 bucks on the Blu Ray player at costco? Why didn't I keep my receipt?
Just one quick point -- to those of you who are "mad" at Warner for leaving HD-DVD people "high and dry"...
How come you now-mad-HDDVD fans weren't upset at Paramount for leaving Blu-Ray fans "high and dry"? Why was it OK for Paramount to choose one side, but not Warner?
Why are there mumblings about "class action" suits against Warner, but those same HD-DVD fans welcomed Paramount (and no BD fans suggested lawsuits)?
Well, seeing that one of the founders of HD-DVD is going to start making products to play their competitors, it seems like they're slowly trying to back away from their own technology. I'm a little sad since I dropped some cash on the HD attachment for the 360, but I always figured Blu would win out in the end.
The first toshiba product that comes out supporting blu-ray will be the end, it can not be more over than that. It will not help them AT ALL..
They used the wrong strategy, they tried to buy big business support, when they should have taken a hit on sale prices and got a high penetration into the market to try compete with the ps3.
They should have given hd-dvd drives to microsoft for the same price as a normal dvd drive, and asked them to include it in the 360 from the word go. It was the only way for them to win. To gamble All or Nothing.
They would have won and got all the money back through hd-dvd sales eventually.
I dont think they are prepared or were ever prepared to actually win this little war.
Only HD was region free.
Blu-Ray still believes we should live in continental cantons.
A sad day indeed.
*I own a ps3
Oh how i love the sound of HD-DVD dying finally. They wasted so much money to stay afloat, now they have finally sunk. Now we can watch Paramount attempt to swim to the surface.
Umm. . .are you try to saying Toshiba wasn't losing money on each HD DVD drive sold?
I don't get why anyone commenting here would be happy about the HD format with the lesser DRM dying off.
As others have posted, it sounds like this dual format player from Toshiba is them pretty much admitting that HD DVD has lost the format war. Even so much as declaring that the low end players will focus on HD DVD. It's as if they are defining, in marketing terms, that HD DVD is the modern version of VHS.
Long live Blu-Ray ... or at least until digital downloads become more widespread and increased in their consumer friendliness.
So toshiba lost the war, huh ? Well, as I recall Japan and Germany lost WWII, which didn't destroy them, but forced them to change their focus from world domination to economic domination.
I think they've both done rather well...
Just because HDDVD may not WIN the format war in the short term doesn't mean it will go away entirely.
Guest: "Jeez man, you've got a LOT of HDDVDs. It's funny to see'em stack up next to your Blu-Rays. You've got like 3x as many."
Host: ' Yeah, I know. I was totally into blu-ray, but eventually I just got so sick the format war I got one of those Dual format players. Surprise sureprise, HDDVDs are cheaper and already have all their features. I just seem to end up buy more of them.'
Guest: "So what are you gonna do about LOTR and the Matrix ?"
Host: 'Huh? Oh, I already have those on DVD, so I probably won't buy them again...'
Not really a prediction, but it doesn't sound all that farfetched to me...
@goglen: Actually, it's not PURELY just fanboy-ism. When Paramount switched, it was a move that actually evened the playing field. It offered a chance for HD-DVD and BRD to fight it out based on technology, branding, and features rather than just based on content exclusion.
Warner's decision basically moves so much of the actual HD content to BRD that it's obviously going to cripple HD-DVD, if not kill it entirely.
Warner's move upsets people because it's genuinely a case of a big corporation making the decision for consumers -- Paramount's defection wasn't nearly as big a deal.
@OddManOut: Umm, actually, it did pretty much destroy them.
Then we went in with the Marshall Plan and helped rebuild their infrastructure with newer and more modern factories than we had...
Leading to their industrial superiority over us with our old infrastructure.
Read a book!
oddmanout: Good point, except that if you go to amazon and check the prices of titles in blu-ray vs. hd-dvd (e.g. blade runner, blue planet, all the harry potter movies) what do you know? they go for the same goddamn price.
I think it's a good thing that Bluray is winning the war. I don't own either player, but the Bluray is simply a superior technology.
One of the problems of the HD-DVD format is that there is just not enough space on the discs. Only 23% of all HD-DVD's have loss-less sound as opposed to Bluray's where 67% have loss-less sound. The ones that don't have loss-less is not because there is not enough space, but because the companies have made one HD edition (so "small" that it fits HD-DVD) and copied it onto a Bluray.
Another thing are these DRM that people keep whining about! We also had them on the DVD format, but that didn't seem to bother anyone... 95% of the people I know, never knew that there were different region codes on the DVD format.
I live in Denmark and nobody cared for Region 1 (US) DVD 'cause there weren't any Danish subtitles. As for people in other European countries don't care for Region 1 because they were not synchronized into German, French, Spanish or whatever language.
Sources in the industry have told that an HD-DVD player costs approx. 300-350$ to produce. Imagine what money Toshiba has lost by selling them in Wal-Mart for 99$ including 12 movies!
Finally, the PS3 will help keeping the prices from soaring. If a stand-alone player gets to expensive people just buy a PS3 instead. And stand-alones will not get to expensive as there are multiple companies that produce stand-alone Bluray players (as apposed to HD-DVD where the only producer is Toshiba - Onkyo tried but they could not make any money on it. So they stopped production even before it hit the market).
This comment is not an attack on anybody - just my opinion :-)
The_Scarecrow
@Djeet: They do now because they are all $30ish minus the deals.
It is commonly knon that it is much cheaper to make a HD-DVD disc. There is no extra coating and they can be made on the same machines that make DVD's. Blu-ray disc's need to be made on new machines.
The studio's are just raping early adopters. In the long run you could see both formats, but movies on HD-DVD could sell for as low as say $5 and Blu-ray's would be say $2 more for the cheapest one's. Not a big deal now but if the market becomes like the current DVD market it will matter.
I think the studio's like blu-ray because of the perceived better DRM(already broken) and region coding. The consumer should like HD-DVD more.
I think it is a good thing that Bluray is winning the war. I don't own either player, but the Bluray is simply a superior technology.
One of the problems of the HD-DVD format is that there is just not enough space on the discs. Only 23% of all HD-DVD's have loss-less sound as opposed to Bluray's where 67% have loss-less sound. The ones that don't have loss-less is not because there is not enough space, but because the companies have made one HD edition (so "small" that it fits HD-DVD) and copied it onto a Bluray.
Another thing are these DRM that people keep whining about! We also had them on the DVD format, but that didn't seem to bother anyone... 95% of the people I know, never knew that there were different region codes on the DVD format.
I live in Denmark and nobody cared for Region 1 (US) DVD 'cause there weren't any Danish subtitles. As for people in other European countries don't care for Region 1 because they were not synchronized into German, French, Spanish or whatever language.
Sources in the industry have told that an HD-DVD player costs approx. 300-350$ to produce. Imagine what money Toshiba has lost by selling them in Wal-Mart for 99$ including 12 movies!
Finally, the PS3 will help keeping the prices from soaring. If a stand-alone player gets to expensive people just buy a PS3 instead. And stand-alones will not get to expensive as there are multiple companies that produce stand-alone Bluray players (as apposed to HD-DVD where the only producer is Toshiba).
This comment is not an attack on anybody - just my opinion :-)
The_Scarecrow
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