Russia has drawn renewed scrutiny following a series of reportedly unprecedented orbital maneuvers, in which one of its government-owned satellites operated in extreme proximity to a U.S.-operated satellite, highlighting growing concerns over the risks of confrontation in space.
The Russian satellite, designated Cosmos 2612, carried out a series of close-proximity maneuvers toward ICEYE-X36, a U.S.-registered commercial radar-imaging satellite, between October 15 and 19, based on data by space-tracking company LeoLabs. Cosmos 2612 spent two days at a close proximity of less than 3 miles (5 kilometers) with ICEYE-X36 before moving away to 62 miles (100 kilometers), according to Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist who tracks ongoing space activities.
Experts deemed it an unprecedented proximity operation and potentially dangerous, yet the intent behind it remains unclear. The ICEYE-X36 satellite is believed to be providing synthetic aperture radar imagery to Ukraine, according to Breaking Defense.
Space stalking
Cosmos 2612 launched on April 16 from a spaceport in northern Russia as one of six military satellites. U.S. military officials have been tracking the group of satellites over the past few months after four of the six satellites adjusted their orbit to align with the ICEYE spacecraft.
It wasn’t until last week that Cosmos 2612 began aggressively stalking the U.S.-operated satellite in orbit, coming within less than a third of a mile (500 meters) and shifting between positions behind and ahead of ICEYE-X36.
In a statement on Friday, LeoLabs said that the Russian spacecraft “conducted a deliberate series of maneuvers toward ICEYE-X36.” Marco Langbroek, a satellite-tracking specialist at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, wrote that while he was initially skeptical whether this was intentional, the series of maneuvers “were clearly designed to bring the two objects very close and synchronize their orbital periods, orbital altitude and eccentricity.”
“This behavior is worrisome,” Langbroek added, warning that this may be an anti-satellite weapon developing in space.
Non-consensual approach
This isn’t the first time Russia has been accused of stalking another satellite. In 2022, a Russian spy satellite, designated Cosmos 2558, launched into the same orbital plane as a U.S. military satellite, dubbed USA 326. In 2025, Russia’s Cosmos 2588 launched to a near-circular orbit, placing it eerily close to a U.S. reconnaissance satellite, USA 338.
What makes this recent incident stand out, however, is that the target is a commercial satellite. “To my knowledge this is the first LEO rendezvous of two active satellites where the owner of one of the sats did not give approval,” McDowell wrote on X.
Finnish satellite company ICEYE first announced its agreement with Ukraine in 2022 to deliver high-resolution synthetic aperture radar satellite imagery, but it did not specify which satellites would be used to do so. ICEYE-X36 is operated by its U.S. arm, ICEYE US, and launched in 2024 from the Vandenberg Space Force Base.
The extreme proximity and deliberate nature of the satellite maneuvers have raised concern about space security. “Given Russia’s history of testing on-orbit weapons, policymakers should assume Cosmos 2612 could take an action that threatens the commercial satellite,” Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a blog post. “But the risk extends beyond just one satellite. A Russian counterspace activity in the vicinity of Western satellites should be assessed within the context of aggressive Russian gray zone activities targeting U.S. and European interests.”
