cognitive biases

Scientists Identify a New Glitch in Human Thinking

The newly coined "doubling-back aversion" highlights another reason why people stubbornly refuse to change tack, researchers say.

Don’t Play Poker With ChatGPT

A new study shows that large language AI models have trouble weighing potential gains and losses, writes a USC engineering professor.

You’re biased about your biases. “We judge whether we have a bias by examining our thoughts, and because we believe our thoughts are rational, we often think we’re not biased when we are… And the more we convince ourselves that we don’t have certain biases, the more likely we are to exhibit them.” [Nautilus] Contact…

8 Logical Fallacies That Fuel Anti-Science Sentiments

We need science more than ever, yet many people find it hard to get accurate information about the scientific method and its achievements. Making things more difficult, their misconceptions about science are often driven by logical fallacies, or errors in deductive reasoning. Here are eight of the most common anti-science fallacies. Illustration by Tara Jacoby…

Why Conspiracy Theorists Are So Obsessed With JFK’s “Umbrella Man”

At the moment when bullets were being fired into JFK’s motorcade, a man can be seen standing on the side of the road near the car holding an open black umbrella. But it wasn’t raining. This is exactly the kind of detail that sets a fire under conspiracy theorists — and here’s why. Indeed, it…

Why Coincidences Aren’t All That Surprising

Hey look. There’s an object on Mars that, from a certain vantage point, looks just like a squirrel. Must be a space-squirrel, right? Wrong. Obviously wrong. There is a rock on Mars that, coincidentally, looks rather squirrel-like. Conspiracy theorists love coincidences like these because they come across as highly improbable, or even impossible, suggesting that…

The Einstellung Effect Proves That a Good Idea Can Be A Very Bad Idea

The perfect is the enemy of the good. We know that phrase very well. What the Einstellung Effect proves is the good can be a real enemy of the even better. When we have a solution that’s good, we can’t begin to think about a better one. The seeming inability to come up with a…

Fredkin’s Paradox Explains Why You Waste Time On Meaningless Decisions

Ever notice that you spend a full 15 minutes agonizing about whether to have apple-cinnamon pancakes or banana-walnut pancakes in the morning? Ever had that decision affect your day in any way? Fredkin’s Paradox explains why you agonize anyway. Edward Fredkin is a professor of digital physics, which means that he has made great contributions…

Proof That We Never Really Know a Bargain When We See One

We’ve all been taken in by “bargains” in a supermarket that sell us more stuff than we can possibly use by giving us a bargain price on bulk food. When it comes to real life issues, we do exactly the opposite. Offer us the bargain of a lifetime, and we just don’t take it. How…

How Can Precision Actually Be a Bias?

Let’s say you’ve got a set of studies on the same subject, and they all yield very similar results. They must be showing an accurate answer, right? Nope. Precision and accuracy are not anywhere near the same thing. Mixing them up could get you in real trouble. Most people explain precision bias as what happens…

The Real Reason Why Meetings Are Boring And Unproductive

Ever come out of a meeting knowing that no person there has the slightest bit more information than they went in with? Of course you have. There’s a documented reason why this is very likely to happen. Scientists asked a group of people to meet together and discuss the resumes of people they were going…

Monkeys Make The Same Bad Gambling Decisions That Humans Do

Humans have a remarkable ability to see patterns where none exist. In the hot-hand phenomenon we perceive streaks of wins or losses where the data, in truth, are random. New research shows that monkeys are subject to the same bias, which might suggest that the bias is evolutionarily adaptive, and maybe even rational. The moniker…

A Disturbing Mind Trick to Make You “Confess” During Interrogations

So after you got up this morning, had some waffles, and murdered your neighbor, how did you get away from the scene? Did you walk or did you take your car? Answering this question might lead to incarceration due to the Recency Principle. The Recency Principle is pretty simple. If you ask a person a…

Selective Perception Is What Makes People Fight About TV

Selective perception describes the phenomenon of only seeing what we want to see. This bias is most glaring when a large group of people see the same events – like a television show. Have you ever been standing next to a friend, saw a fight happen in real time, and then turned to each other…

The End of History Illusion Is The One Way You’re Still An Adolescent

Do you believe you’ve finally shed the illusions of youth? That you’ve struggled, and changed, and become a different person? You’re half right. One of the most persistent personal illusions is the End of History Illusion — and that might be a very good thing. Do We Misjudge the Future or Forget the Past? Remember…

The Syndrome That Explains Why You Spent Too Much Money This Weekend

Why do you come out of the weekends wondering why your wallet is so unaccountably empty? There are a lot of reasons, but the most telling is evocatively called the “what-the-hell” effect. Most of you are taking some time today to curse your weekend self for spending all your money on . . . what?…

10 Reasons an Artificial Intelligence Wouldn’t Turn Evil

We all know the story. The moment that computers with their lightning-quick processing power and interlinked systems gain sentience – it’s judgment day. But would that really happen? Here are some psychological reasons why digital super-intelligence isn’t going to be evil intelligence. 10. No Sunk Costs The two major franchises in which evil machines took…

​Extract Money From People Using the Ambiguity Effect

Are you comfortable with uncertainty? Are you willing to take money from those who aren’t comfortable with it? Then I have just the rigged game for you! Make money from people’s uncertainties with the Ambiguity Effect. Here’s a quick game. I have a jar full of ninety marbles. There are thirty red marbles for sure,…

Can Skepticism Blind You to the Truth?

An odd experiment, done by a believer in paranormal phenomena, opens a few questions about how everyone perceives the world. We know that belief can blind people – but can disbelief do the same thing? Arthur Ellison, a professor of electrical engineering and prank enthusiast, decided to end a lecture in an entertaining way. He…

Why Meetings Are The Worst Possible Way To Get Things Done

Have you ever had to talk out a decision in a big meeting? Did the meeting take forever and accomplish nothing? Here’s why. The Study That Shut People Up At least one study has demonstrated the fact that talking can take away a group’s ability to make a good decision — not to mention a…