Alan Reiter, of WirelessInternet.com writes in with a many excellent points about Microsoft’s new wireless data network that’s being rolled out to transmit data to wristwatches:
Not one article about Bill Gates’ keynote speech at CES has reported that the entire concept — using an FM radio subcarrier network to transmit data to watches and other devices — is at least 20 years old. What Gates discussed has been tried many times and it has failed miserably!
It’s actually kind of amusing. This supposedly brand-new concept is so old that most reporters/analysts have no idea it has come and gone…and, now, come again! I’m one of the few analysts who is old enough to know about this. In 1983 I created what I believe was the first FM radio subcarrier newsletter to report on subcarriers, which the FCC deregulated in 1983.
Some points about Microsoft’s plans:
1. Microsoft is leasing FM radio subcarriers from Clear Channel. In the 1980s and 1990s, several companies, such as Reach, Inc., Cue Paging and Seiko, established nationwide FM subcarrier networks in the U.S. Have you ever heard of them? If you haven’t, it’s no surprise. They don’t exist anymore.
2. Microsoft is touting FM radio subcarrier watches. Years ago Seiko sold a Seiko MessageWatch using FM subcarriers. The venture was a failure. When I interviewed Seiko about this venture, they said they understood why other ventures failed and why they would succeed. Ha!
3. Microsoft is touting applications like weather, stocks, traffic reports and messaging. How innovative can you get?! All these applications, and many, many more, were implemented years ago by FM radio subcarrier networks — the same networks that don’t exist today.
4. The applications Gates touted have been available for years on cellular phones and one-way and two-way pagers. These applications are “commodities.” There’s nothing special about them. The value-add is limited, to say the least. People didn’t want to pay $5 or more for these apps years ago. Why should they pay now?
5. There are significant issues about the performance of FM radio subcarrier networks. They had serious problems with in-building penetrations because of regulatory constraints. Unless regulations have changed, radio stations cannot construct supplementary towers just for FM radio subcarrier coverage.
6. FM subcarrier broadcast power is often much, much less than the main channel’s power. In other words, you cannot get subcarrier signals wherever you can the regular radio program.
Obviously, you can’t write off a venture before it starts and you certainly can’t write off Microsoft. Possibly people will purchase the watch because of some cool design or features.
But it’s important to understand what has gone before in order to analyze what Microsoft wants to accomplish today. Microsoft is positioning this “wireless watch” effort as state-of-the-art when it’s actually “Back to the Future.” I have nothing against Microsoft (well, except for their policies and their software ), but, to be serious, Microsoft seems to be “getting away” (is this too negative?) with promoting a 20-year-old failed concept because no one is pointing at the Emperor and proclaiming many of his clothes are used goods.
If you care for any more information, I have posted a ridiculously long item on my Weblog.
