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Can an Algorithm Really Predict If a Movie Will Be a Hit?

There are all kinds of people who'd want to know if a movie will be a hit before it comes out. Companies who are throwing down money on advertising, you before you let yourself get excited. Well according to researchers at Tottori University, there's a mathematical equation out there that can do a pretty good job of just that.


Inspired by physics, the equation puts together variables like advertising, direct word of mouth, and general buzz to predict just how much a given blockbuster will bust blocks. And so far, according to Professor Akira Ishii, it works pretty well. The problem is that right now the calculations are a little too complex and specific for use outside the lab, but no doubt that'll change after a while. In the mean time you'll just have to go with your gut. [DigInfo]

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Advertising, direct word of mouth, and general buzz? How About how good is the movie itself?