Can Apple's Stock Beat The New iPhone Curse?

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Can Apple's stock beat the new iPhone curse this time?

For the last three years, Apple's stock fell during the month following a new iPhone announcement. It was down 10% in 2007 after the iPhone was first announced, down 4% in 2008 after the iPhone 3G unveiling, and down 5% after the iPhone 3GS was announced in 2009.

So far, Apple's stock is following the historical trend. As of this writing, Apple is down 1.8% on the day, despite analysts loving Apple and iPhone 4. (The market at large has been mixed today.)

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If Apple were to buck the historical trend it would have to fight the tape. The market at large has been slipping for the last month.

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DISCUSSION

Apple is in a curious position. Most believe the stock is way overpriced as it is. The stock price has skyrocketed at such a pace that i believe most people are poised to cash out and take their money and run. I'm not sure this bubble can keep expanding forever, I think its ready to burst regardless of how apple products sell at the moment.