All this also applies to whatever ecosystem of gadgets Huawei’s trying to build out now with Harmony OS. It might succeed in markets where Google doesn’t have such a vise grip, but this late in the game? It’s going to be an uphill battle to convince Western markets to ditch all the Apple, Google Nest, or Amazon Echo gadgets they’ve already invested in.

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Look, I’m not saying the Huawei Watch 3 and Watch 3 Pro will be bad. Huawei’s previous smartwatches were decent offerings, albeit they could be a pain to get for U.S. consumers. (Personally, I thought the Huawei Watch 2 was the best Android Wear 2.0 watch back in 2017.) So long as the Watch 3 doesn’t go and pull a OnePlus Watch debacle, it’s got impressive enough specs to be a good Android-friendly, Wear OS alternative. We just haven’t seen a successful alternate platform to Android or iOS thus far—and not for lack of trying. Companies like Samsung and Microsoft aren’t bit players. They have deep coffers, international brand recognition, and die-hard fans—but neither succeeded in unseating Android-based platforms. Samsung and Microsoft also didn’t have to contend with trade wars. True, it’s not like Huawei has other options so long as this ban is in place, but the odds don’t seem stacked in its favor.