Kalshi wants to become the go-to source for U.S. election odds ahead of this year’s midterms, even as its election contracts face new legal scrutiny.
The popular prediction marketplace announced Wednesday that it is launching its first-ever Midterms Hub with election markets, aggregated polling averages, fundraising data, campaign news, and analysis. Kalshi wants the hub to serve as a one-stop shop for the public, journalists, researchers, and even political campaigns themselves as it continues to try to rebrand gambling as news.
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow users to buy contracts based on whether they believe a future event will happen. The price of a contract generally reflects the market’s estimated probability of that outcome. Kalshi argues that because its markets trade 24 hours a day, their odds can respond to breaking news, debates, and other political developments faster than traditional polls. The broader argument for prediction markets as an information source is that they theoretically encourage insider trading and can potentially surface undisclosed plans for future events from people in the know.
“Prediction markets don’t care about spin or partisanship. They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric,” Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s co-founder and CEO, said in a press release.
The company is especially emphasizing the idea of the “wisdom of the crowds.” According to Kalshi, candidates favored in its U.S. election markets since 2024 went on to win roughly nine times out of 10.
In case you were wondering, Kalshi currently gives Republicans a 55% chance of controlling the Senate next year and Democrats an 83% chance of controlling the House.
While Kalshi was founded in 2018, it has surged in popularity in recent years after correctly forecasting major events, including the 2024 presidential election and the New York City mayoral race. The platform has since entered into partnerships with major organizations, including CNN, the Golden Globes, and the Associated Press.
But its latest push into politics could face a major hurdle.
This week, the Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) warned voters that state law prohibits people from voting in an election in which they have “made or become interested, directly or indirectly, in any bet or wager depending upon the result of the election.”
The commission said that includes trades placed on Kalshi and its rival Polymarket. The commission also warned that someone who votes in an election despite being disqualified under the law could be charged with a felony.
“We want voters to understand that they cannot legally make a bet on an election and cast a ballot in that same election,” WEC Administrator Meagan Wolfe said in a news release. “We are not able to police someone placing a bet on these platforms, but it’s important for voters to understand the consequences if they bet on an election outcome.”
According to the news release, voters who make bets on elections could be subject to voter qualification administrative challenges and even be referred to the District Attorney.
Kalshi and Polymarket have both pushed back on the warning, arguing that buying and selling event contracts is not the same as placing a bet or wager.
“This action runs counter to the CFTC’s established framework for regulating prediction markets,” a Polymarket spokesperson told Gizmodo in an emailed statement. “We look forward to addressing these claims through the appropriate legal process.”
Kalshi did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, the company told Wisconsin Public Radio that suggesting its users could be prevented from voting is an act of voter suppression.
“If even a handful of our users in Wisconsin see this and get scared away from voting, that could EASILY swing an election,” a Kalshi spokesperson told the local outlet.
The company also appears ready to fight the commission in court as it tries to cement its place in the U.S. election ecosystem.
“We hope the WEC retracts their statement before a court forces them to,” the spokesperson added.
