Sara Seager—professor of planetary science at MIT—has developed a new formula that demonstrates that we will find proof of alien life very soon, probably within our lifespan. Unlike the classic Drake’s equation—which assess the probability of intelligent life—hers uses real data instead of speculation.
https://gizmodo.com/what-a-brand-new-equation-reveals-about-our-odds-of-fin-531575395
Seager claims that her formula doesn’t replaces Drake’s, as the latter applies to the probability of the existence of intelligence life in the universe, not the probability of humans finding proof of organic life in other star systems.