New data seems to show that GLP-1 medications like semaglutide, the active ingredient in popular drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, are working on a population-wide level.
Last late week, health analytics organization EPIC Research released two data trackers looking at the medical records of people across the country. The prescription rate of GLP-1 drugs in the U.S. has skyrocketed in recent years, the data shows, coinciding with a modest but sustained drop in the obesity rate. Though it’s still too early to tell, the long-term and widespread use of GLP-1s could finally start to help turn the tide against obesity.
As one rises, one falls
Epic Systems produces software used by health care systems across the world to create and maintain electronic medical records. COSMOS is a dataset created in collaboration with many of these systems, covering over 300 million patient records from thousands of hospitals and clinics in the U.S. and other countries. The company’s offshoot, EPIC Research, has started to use COSMOS data to keep an eye on many nationwide health trends, such as the seasonal rate of infectious diseases like norovirus or the adoption of GLP-1s.
These latest trackers are now able to see how many Americans within COSMOS are being prescribed GLP-1s, along with their body mass index, on a quarterly basis. And it appears things have significantly changed on both ends over time.
Between the second quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2026, for instance, GLP-1 prescriptions among U.S. adults increased more than fourfold, from 1,884 to 8,819 prescriptions per 100,000 patients. Conversely, the percentage of people with obesity in the dataset over the same time period declined from 42% to 41%. The drop in the obesity rate was larger when looking exclusively at people who have previously received a GLP-1 prescription, falling from 75% to 69%.
This data isn’t necessarily representative of the entire country, but it does line up well with other indicators. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has previously estimated that between 2021 and 2023, 40% of Americans had obesity, defined as having a BMI of 30 and above. Last December, however, it reported a drop in the adult obesity rate between 2023 and 2024. Other studies and surveys have also shown a clear rise in the number of Americans taking GLP-1s.
What will happen in the future
These drugs are clearly effective at treating obesity and preventing related health problems, so long as you’re taking them, at least. And given the long steady rise in the national obesity rate, even a small sustained drop is welcome news. While many people with obesity can be generally healthy, obesity is linked to an increased risk of many other health conditions, including type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and cancer.
The future of obesity in America will depend on many factors, however. Right now, only about 12% of Americans are currently taking a GLP-1, for instance, well below the number of people who have obesity, while 6% have since stopped taking them. While some people discontinued their GLP-1 use due to the well-known gastrointestinal side effects they can cause, others have cited high prices or a lack of insurance coverage for the therapy.
The out-of-pocket costs of GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy have significantly dropped as of late, though they can still cost hundreds of dollars a month without insurance. Countries like Canada and India have recently approved cheaper generics of semaglutide, but it will likely take another five years before these generics could reach the U.S.
Not every person with obesity wants to take a GLP-1, nor will they necessarily benefit from it. But there is a real chance that the widespread adoption of these drugs and improved iterations could someday make obesity a much rarer condition.
