Everyone in the world knows Spider-Man: Brand New Day is going to be a hit. It was destined to be a hit the second the last film, Spider-Man: No Way Home, ended. Ever since that moment, fans have been anxiously awaiting answers about what’s next for Peter Parker now that the whole world has forgotten him. The fans have not forgotten Tom Holland as Peter Parker, and on July 31, they’re going to turn out in droves.
What no one in the world knows, however, is just how big a hit Brand New Day is going to be. Could it approach $2 billion like No Way Home? Is half that, like the previous film Far From Home, more reasonable? Well, those answers have begun to emerge. Deadline reports that the first estimates on what Spider-Man: Brand New Day is going to gross have been released, and it’s tracking to open between $180 and $190 million.
Now, of course, these are just industry estimates based on a number of factors: ticket presales, audience polling, social media, etc. That number could go down or, more likely, it will go up as the film’s marketing really begins to kick in over the next few weeks.
But, for the sake of this article, let’s say it opens at $190 million. That would make it the second biggest Spider-Man opening ever (behind No Way Home‘s $260 million) and the biggest opening of 2026 (ahead of Toy Story 5‘s $160 million). Which, honestly, feels about right.
Brand New Day definitely has anticipation and buzz, but it doesn’t have those Tobey Maguire/Andrew Garfield rumors that helped bring No Way Home to such insane heights. If anything, the film’s plot and secrets are still so mysterious that it could probably use a little healthy speculation to get fans even more excited.
Where do you think Spider-Man: Brand New Day will fall once it opens on July 31? Does this tracking seem accurate? Could it make more? Less? Let us know below.
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