President Donald Trump declared a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday between the U.S. and Iran in a war that started over a month ago. It remains to be seen whether the so-called ceasefire will hold, but we know one thing for certain: A handful of people successfully predicted the timing of that ceasefire, raising questions yet again about insider trading.
More than $170 million in bets were placed on Polymarket about a potential ceasefire, making it one of the biggest geopolitical wagers on the prediction markets, as Bloomberg notes. A cluster of accounts that keep changing their names has notched an incredibly lucrative string of wins dating back to America’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in the summer of 2025, according to the analytics platform Bubblemaps.
The accounts successfully bet on America’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 21, 2025, Israel’s launch of Operation Rising Lion against Iran on June 13, 2025, and the launch of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, which started Feb. 28, 2026. Three accounts made over $600,000 on the ceasefire bet alone, according to the Wall Street Journal, and over $1.2 million by betting on the timing of the Iran War’s start.
But some debates are happening right now on Polymarket about what constitutes a “ceasefire,” something that always comes up whenever there’s a lot of money on the line. When the U.S. kidnapped Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January, users who had bet on an “invasion” cried foul when their bets weren’t deemed successful.
The rules of the contract about the ceasefire state that it would resolve to yes if there was an “official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran,” according to the Polymarket website.
The rules go on to say there needs to be “clear public confirmation” that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to halt hostilities. It’s perhaps notable that Israel is not mentioned in the rules.
Whether the current situation meets Polymarket’s bar for a win is still up in the air, with two pending disputes on record. The outcome will officially be resolved in two days.
The “lucky” accounts identified by Bubblemaps keep changing names, with MAGAMESSI recently changing to ElonfaX89678, and nothingeverhappens911 changing to nothingeverfrickinghappens and then to djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg.
Bubblemaps explained in tweets on Tuesday that the accounts don’t have a perfect record. For example, the djijaij83jdo4jdlwjflsg account made a bet that there would be a ceasefire by March 31, which didn’t happen. But they have more wins than losses, raking in hundreds of thousands of dollars on the ceasefire on Tuesday.
The accounts share the same crypto address on Binance, according to the Wall Street Journal, which raises the question of who might be behind these bets and whether they have non-public information from either the U.S. or Israeli governments.
The ceasefire was celebrated by Trump allies Tuesday night, but by Wednesday morning, it became apparent that no one is sure what it actually entails. CNN reports there was no formal written agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Israel has continued to bomb Lebanon, even increasing its attacks against Beirut since the start of the so-called ceasefire. So far, at least 112 people in Lebanon have been killed, and 837 have been wounded on Wednesday alone, according to the AFP.
Trump has insisted that cessation of hostilities in Lebanon is not part of the deal, but Iran seems to believe otherwise. Iran has attacked three power stations and water distillation plants since the start of the ceasefire, according to Kuwait’s Interior Ministry. And Iran’s Parliament Speaker released a statement on Wednesday saying that the U.S. has violated three parts of the framework for a ceasefire.
Iranian state media reported Wednesday that the country has closed the Strait of Hormuz, according to the AP. And even if the Strait were to “open,” it sounds like both Iran and Trump would like to charge a toll of $2 million for ships to pass through. U.S. allies in the region have reportedly called this arrangement unacceptable. Iran wants the toll paid in bitcoin, according to several news outlets.
Meanwhile, a gallon of gas is averaging $4.11, up from $2.90 before the start of the war. And even if the Strait were to open, with or without a toll, there’s still the potential for continued disruption. Iran and the U.S. are scheduled to meet in Pakistan on Friday to discuss the terms of a long-term peace plan.
Insider trading has become a big issue with the rapid rise of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, since the companies seem unable to even define what might constitute insider trading. But the Trump regime is in charge of regulating these platforms, and the White House seems highly unlikely to crack down on anyone making serious money from bets on the war.
It’s not just online betting, though. Investors bet over $950 million on oil prices plummeting just hours before the announcement of the ceasefire, according to Reuters. There are a lot of different ways to make money with insider information.
