The dispersal of the particles does not capture such effects as oil coagulation, formation of tar balls, chemical and microbial degradation. Computed surface concentrations relative to the actual spill may therefore be overestimated. The animation, thus, is not a detailed, specific prediction, but rather a scenario that could help guide research and mitigation efforts.

Advertisement

In the model, the oil begins in the Gulf of Mexico, weaves its way to the Gulf Stream, hits the Carolinas and Georgia around October 2010, and even delivers a diluted film to Europe's Atlantic coast. Timmermann notes, "After one year, about 20% of the particles initially released at the Deepwater Horizon location have been transported through the Straits of Florida and into the open Atlantic." Hooray — even though this is by no means a hard projection, it's certainly not heartening.

[The University of Hawaii here and here. Spotted on BLDGBLOG.]

Click to view

Advertisement
Advertisement